Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
Statecraft, strategy, security|Russia,US,Mideast | Director @mgimo_iis | Associate Professor @mgimo | Ex @AlMonitor & @IEuniversity | Views mine.RT≠endorsement

Jan 6, 2020, 9 tweets

SHORT THREAD on #Russia/n view of killing of #QassemSoleimani.
A #Russia/n media cites its own source in #Hezbollah who says the assassination was made possible due to a "mole" inside IRCG/Hezbollah, who collaborated w/ US intel services.

According to the person,#Iran never stopped negotiating w/ #US over lifting of sanctions but Soleimani was the biggest obstacle to a deal w/ #US.The counterintuitive argument the Hezbollah guy presents is that chances for detente b/n #US,#Iran actually higher,thou not immediately

The original story in Russian is here: novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/…

In general #Russia's own reaction to killing of #QassemSoleimani was predictably critical of #US, focused on all kinds of violations by Americans of international law & shockwaves across the region.
Detailed account here:
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…

I spoke with 2 people in #Russia/n MFA & MoD who worked w/ #Soleimani in/on #Syria, both lament his death, spoke highly of him, said he was a "complicated person" but "a man of his word" and "incredibly smart". Yet both say there's some silver lining in his passing for #Russia

There're 3 things #Russia now weighting in:
1 How #Soleimani's death impacts domestic situation in #Iran/stability of regime
2.Whether it may impact IRN-RUS coordination in #Syria
3. Is this new trend in #US behavior or just one incident

Some within #Russia/n military circles working different scenarios now including that of a direct military conflcit b/n #US, #Iran. In this case, they encounrage the Kremlin / MoD to establish full-fledged military cooperation with #Iran but this position not in majority

#Moscow now busy making connections w/ all the escalations around the region (#Syria,#Libya,#Turkey, #Iraq,#Iran). #Putin keeps mum on how he personally sees the situation. On Jan. 8 he goes to Istanbul but on Jan 22-23 he will travel to #Israel to commemorate #Holocaust victims

Meanwhile earlier today Commander of the #Russia/n forces in #Syria Alexander Chayko led a RUS military delegation to #Iran/ian embassy in #Damascus to pay tribute to #QassemSoleimani

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