The conflict in #Ukraine is a collateral damage of a massive #US-#Russia crisis that has been brewing for years. Now that the conflict penetrates every political, economic and social level regionally and globally, it’s important to see what comes next. LONGISH THREAD. I’m an academic,not my job to advise govs/ companies,but analysis of most global consultancies gets increasingly biased.Mine probably too.But I'd present the other side of the picture from what people get from MSM dominated discourse of things in #Ukraine &costs #Russia shld bear

Unconfimred reports of #Russia/n hitting 13 bio-lab munitions throughout #Ukraine, some of them underground, so it took a few strikes to destroy them.
The issue of foreign powers resarch bio labs in UKR is gaining traction in RUS media - watch this space The official RU discourse now suggests that #Russia's 3 precise types of threats emanating from UKR were:
👉#Ukraine in NATO (geopolitics)
👉URK allegedly wanting to get nukes (existential threat)
👉UKR hosting "murky #US bio labs" (bio weapons) - #China on this story now too

⚡️#Putin begins his address to the nation regarding his decisions on #Donbass #Putin says a guide into history is necessary to understand where modern day events in #Ukraine stand, argues that today's Ukraine is a product of Bolshevik Russia, is a virtual assortment of different lands

.#Turkey's President #Erdogan came to #Ukraine for a meeting with #Zelensky. What's cooking here and how #Russia sees all of this? My THREAD. 1. @RTErdogan officially came w/ a “peacekeeping” mission, but no illusions in #Moscow of waht kinda olive branch he carries.
3 goals:
a) insert #Turkey in conflict to expand regional influence
b) sell more arms
c) access #Ukraine's tech market

🔥⚡️Deputy Chairman of Foreign Affairs Commiitee of the #Russia/n Council of Federation (Senate): #US response to Russian security proposals does not satisfy #Moscow. RUS will prepare its own response within days & it will be prepared in consulations w/ partners including #China Meanwhile,27 #Russia/n diplomats @RusEmbUSA are leaving #US today (28 more expected to leave during summer) upon #US decision
Amb.Antonov said @StateDept "made it clear that he himself would also have to leave by April if RUS fails to give visas to guards of US embassy in Moscow"

#Lavrov on talks with @ABlinken: #US sought to put #Ukraine at the top of the negotiations agenda, but it seemed to me that at the end of th meeting they realized we'd eventually have to focus on the substance of [#Russia's] security proposals #Lavrov on the meeting with @ABlinken: We believe that publicizing #US response to #Russia's security proposals would be a right thing to do, I'd ask Secretary #Blinken that we should do it

My summary of #US - #Russia talks in #Geneva / THREAD 1. The talks went, by and large, as #Russia/n party expected it to go:
a) #US took most RUS proposals seriously, elaborated thru them;
b) US sought to tie RUS proposals to issues of strategic stability & missile deployments
c) US sought to make it “protracted negotiation process”

#Russia/n deployment to #Kazakhstan within CSTO mandate - THREAD 1/ Eurasian politics can be interesting:
Over the past 3 days the country that seemed the strongest in #CentralAsia almost turned into a failed state. #Putin sent troops to prop up the ruler who endorsed "multi-vector" foreign policy...

Serious clashes between protestors and law enforcement on the streets of Almaty, unconfirmed reports suggest 8 law enforcement killed, many wounded
#KazakhstanProtests
#Kazakhstan Mob captures and beats up a law enforcement officer

I read the title & thought #US was just playing fool.Then I watched @CNN asking abt "#Putin's motives for invading #Ukraine" & heard the answers such as "further dispution of #NATO" & "..constantly testing the West".
I know see why the "blind spot"
edition.cnn.com/2021/11/15/pol… Seriously thou, there're some Russia experts in #Washington who read #Russia well. There're not many but enought to draw on their expetise to make accurate policies. The intel "blind spot" isn't cuz of lack of info or access to #Putin's closed circle...

Good piece by @scharap on #US - #Russia -#Ukraine puzzle. Short THREAD with my own reflections on Sam's thoughts.

https://twitter.com/scharap/status/1461900383887007745

1/ Charap's reasoning is most realist & reasonable of other proposals coming from Washington these days on how to contain & deter #Russia over #Ukraine. Perhaps,RU does seek to change status-quo but this,as many in #Moscow see it,exactly what #US has sought to do in last 6+ years

The problem is not that #Putin directs #Lukashenka's actions - he does not. The problem is that #Belarus for #Russia is transforming into what #DPRK is for #China. But this is Russia's problem, not #EU's. The problem for #EU is it has long outsourced decision-making on key issues in regions of strategic importance for Europe to #US (which,in turn,falls prey to US domestic politics).
EU won't recognise it. Instead,it keeps looking for "#Putin factor" in every new challenge it faces

This year #Russia's flagship conference - annual meeting of the @valdaitweets in #Sochi - features Foreign Minister Lavrov,#Moscow's mayor Sobyanin,former #Afghanistan president Karzai &,possibly,#Putin himself.The place is amazing & the venue is intellectually rich. Stay tuned. Day 2 at @valdaitweets conference.
@mfa_russia Sergey Lavrov speaks.
Kicks off by detailing #Russia's position on ceasing contacts with @NATO, argues the problems been piling up, #NATO was long sabotaging & rejecting many of #Moscow initiatives

#Russia published its annual Foreign Policy Review, a 66 page document that highlights key events and issues in RUS foreign policy and diplomatic activity in 2020. Full text here (in RUS): mid.ru/ru/activity/re…
A brief summary of relations w/ #US in this SHORT THREAD 1. Relations w/ #US & #Canada discussed on 1.5 pages. The FP review says "tensions w/ US continued to build up becuase of multifaceted American efforts to contain #Russia. Interaction was limited and ad hoc."

⚡Putin responded to @POTUS remarks over #Russia/n president being a "killer" & #Moscow's meddling in #US election by saying he "wishes him good health" #Putin added: "In childhood we were playing in the yard, and when we argued with each other, we used to say: "Whoever calls his name is called that." And this is no coincidence, this is not just a childish saying and joke. The meaning is very deep in this, psychological.”

#Russia, #US,and the fight over #SputnikV
Short THREAD
#Putin made interesting comments that are important to understand how #Russia reads the situation with promotion of #vaccines 1. #Putin: "Global market for #COVID19 vaccines is worth $100 billion. We see how competitors of our producers behave: they enter a country [that is in need for vaccines],sell a small batch of vaccines on a discounted price but condition the sale with that...

#Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey #Lavrov &
@SecBlinken held their first phone conversation.
Here's a couple of my observations:
Short THREAD 1.If one reads the @StateDept press release they may get a sense that @SecBlinken only put forward new #US demands (new START should include all #Russia/n nukes+address #China threat) or raised unpleasant issues for #Moscow (interference, hacking, #Ukraine, @navalny) which he did

⚡️JUST IN: #Russia/n peacekeepers reported to be deployed in #NagornoKarabakh, as part of the trilateral agreement b/n #Moscow, #Armenia & #Azerbaijan.
The peacekeepers will be supported by all branches of military, including airforces, artillery, special focres & navy #Putin-#Aliev-#Pashinyan peace agreement:
- Parties preserve their positions as fixed at the moment (Shusha under AZ control)
- #Armenia de-occupies territories around #NagornoKarabakh + part of Karabakh that #Azerbaijan took over
-ARM keeps 5 km Lachin corridor

LATEST on #Russia/n policy activity (possibly) related to #NagornoKarabakh:
1. Contacts increase w/ #Iran over last couple of days. IRN ambassador in #Moscow twice hosted by #Lavrov's deputies: officially - one time to discuss #Syria, Gulf, the other - Eurasian Economic Union. 2. #UAE's Crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed called #Putin yesterday. #Kremlin's presser says the two focused on "Middle East settlement and cooperation on #COVID19" (Emiraties now testign #Russia/n Sputnik V vaccine).

#Putin gave an interview yesterday where he spoke at length about #America's #DemocraticParty, his vision for working w/ @JoeBiden, if the latter is elected #POTUS.
Here's a short THREAD: 1."We hear rather sharp anti #Russia/n rhetoric frm #Biden.Sadly,we now used to it.But something worth mentioning.
-Dem Party traditionally closer to so-called liberal values,to Social Dem ideas,if compared to Europe. It was frm Social Dem environment that Communist Party evolved

THREAD: #Russia-#Turkey interaction over #NagornoKarabakh getting uneasy. After #Moscow turned down #Ankara’s proposal to set up #Syria-type format for Karabakh (#KarabakhAstana) @MevlutCavusoglu told #Lavrov cease-fire not gonna happen until #Armenia leaves occupied Azeri areas Earlier, I forecasted 👇 that #Turkey's ultimate goal in this war was not to fight anyone but get a new deal with #Russia. It was obvious from @RTErdogan's criticism of Minsk OSCE group performance on #Karabakh. Bu the devil is in details & here they are

https://twitter.com/m_suchkov/status/1310911822833373184