Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Professor of Strategy @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime Studies Institute. Visiting Scholar @Harvard/@FairbankCenter. Member @CFR_org. Dad.

Nov 12, 2021, 9 tweets

Honored to be interviewed by @GrecianFormula on @DeptofDefense's 2021 #China #Military Power Report!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

Read my big picture takeaways & recommendations for @POTUS/@SecDef @19_forty_five!

Implications for #NationalSecurity Strategy, #Nuclear Posture Review.

#Pentagon's #China #Military Power Report is a 173-page treasure trove!

After my all-nighter 6-page summary—bit.ly/DoD-CMPR—I'm still finding food for thought...

Here are some new reflections from my interview w/ @GrecianFormula @19_forty_five:

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

CMPR's biggest revelation? Most would say #nuclear #weapons buildup:

#PRC may have up to 700 deliverable #nuke warheads by 2027, of which roughly 200 warheads will be on land-based #ICBMs capable of threatening US; & at least 1,000 nuke warheads by 2030.

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

On that note, @fravel shows only top #PRC leaders shape #nuclear #strategy:

bit.ly/ChinaMilStrat

After relative restraint under #Mao/#Deng, are we now witnessing more assertive nuclear posture emerging under #Xi?

Numbers, triad, hypersonics, possible low-yield suggests so..

Now let's review: bit.ly/CMPRs

Biggest change since 2020 #CMPR?—2030 #PRC #nuclear warhead projection increase from ~doubling to ~quadrupling!

Since 2000 CMPR?—Suggestion that PRC now seeks to equal/exceed US power & influence by mid-century!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

“The #PRC’s #strategy aims to achieve ‘the great rejuvenation of the #Chinese nation’ by 2049 to match or surpass US global influence & power, displace US alliances & #security partnerships in the #IndoPacific region, & revise the #international order to be more advantageous....”

The CMPR doesn't make these statements lightly. Rather, they're backed by extensive #USG data & analysis—

—all curated under leading expert #China DASD
@Michael_S_Chase

defense.gov/About/Biograph…

Dr. Chase has a long track record of scholarship/analysis:

bit.ly/ProfChase

Now—my personal recs:

1) @SecDef, pls. define #PRC "pacing challenge."
2) Ensure we're ready for threat to #Taiwan peaking by 2027.
3) Ensure NSS, etc. FULLY reflect CMPR realities.
3a) Preserve (extended)deterrence 100% in #Nuke Posture Review.

Details: 19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

Parting shot:

#CMPR shows urgency/stakes in deterring #PRC aggression.

Next yr's #defense #budget must align money/mouth.

As @POTUS himself once so wisely said—“Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget & I’ll tell you what you value.”

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

#THREAD

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