Honored to be interviewed by @GrecianFormula on @DeptofDefense's 2021 #China #Military Power Report!
19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
Read my big picture takeaways & recommendations for @POTUS/@SecDef @19_forty_five!
Implications for #NationalSecurity Strategy, #Nuclear Posture Review.
#Pentagon's #China #Military Power Report is a 173-page treasure trove!
After my all-nighter 6-page summary—bit.ly/DoD-CMPR—I'm still finding food for thought...
Here are some new reflections from my interview w/ @GrecianFormula @19_forty_five:
19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
CMPR's biggest revelation? Most would say #nuclear #weapons buildup:
#PRC may have up to 700 deliverable #nuke warheads by 2027, of which roughly 200 warheads will be on land-based #ICBMs capable of threatening US; & at least 1,000 nuke warheads by 2030.
19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
On that note, @fravel shows only top #PRC leaders shape #nuclear #strategy:
bit.ly/ChinaMilStrat
After relative restraint under #Mao/#Deng, are we now witnessing more assertive nuclear posture emerging under #Xi?
Numbers, triad, hypersonics, possible low-yield suggests so..
Now let's review: bit.ly/CMPRs
Biggest change since 2020 #CMPR?—2030 #PRC #nuclear warhead projection increase from ~doubling to ~quadrupling!
Since 2000 CMPR?—Suggestion that PRC now seeks to equal/exceed US power & influence by mid-century!
19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
“The #PRC’s #strategy aims to achieve ‘the great rejuvenation of the #Chinese nation’ by 2049 to match or surpass US global influence & power, displace US alliances & #security partnerships in the #IndoPacific region, & revise the #international order to be more advantageous....”
The CMPR doesn't make these statements lightly. Rather, they're backed by extensive #USG data & analysis—
—all curated under leading expert #China DASD
@Michael_S_Chase
defense.gov/About/Biograph…
Dr. Chase has a long track record of scholarship/analysis:
bit.ly/ProfChase
Now—my personal recs:
1) @SecDef, pls. define #PRC "pacing challenge."
2) Ensure we're ready for threat to #Taiwan peaking by 2027.
3) Ensure NSS, etc. FULLY reflect CMPR realities.
3a) Preserve (extended)deterrence 100% in #Nuke Posture Review.
Details: 19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
Parting shot:
#CMPR shows urgency/stakes in deterring #PRC aggression.
Next yr's #defense #budget must align money/mouth.
As @POTUS himself once so wisely said—“Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget & I’ll tell you what you value.”
19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
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