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Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
@AndrewSErickson
Nov 12, 2021 • 9 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
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Honored to be interviewed by @GrecianFormula on @DeptofDefense's 2021 #China #Military Power Report!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

Read my big picture takeaways & recommendations for @POTUS/@SecDef @19_forty_five!

Implications for #NationalSecurity Strategy, #Nuclear Posture Review.
#Pentagon's #China #Military Power Report is a 173-page treasure trove!

After my all-nighter 6-page summary—bit.ly/DoD-CMPR—I'm still finding food for thought...

Here are some new reflections from my interview w/ @GrecianFormula @19_forty_five:

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po… Image
CMPR's biggest revelation? Most would say #nuclear #weapons buildup:

#PRC may have up to 700 deliverable #nuke warheads by 2027, of which roughly 200 warheads will be on land-based #ICBMs capable of threatening US; & at least 1,000 nuke warheads by 2030.

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
On that note, @fravel shows only top #PRC leaders shape #nuclear #strategy:

bit.ly/ChinaMilStrat

After relative restraint under #Mao/#Deng, are we now witnessing more assertive nuclear posture emerging under #Xi?

Numbers, triad, hypersonics, possible low-yield suggests so.. ImageImage
Now let's review: bit.ly/CMPRs

Biggest change since 2020 #CMPR?—2030 #PRC #nuclear warhead projection increase from ~doubling to ~quadrupling!

Since 2000 CMPR?—Suggestion that PRC now seeks to equal/exceed US power & influence by mid-century!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po… Image
“The #PRC’s #strategy aims to achieve ‘the great rejuvenation of the #Chinese nation’ by 2049 to match or surpass US global influence & power, displace US alliances & #security partnerships in the #IndoPacific region, & revise the #international order to be more advantageous....” Image
The CMPR doesn't make these statements lightly. Rather, they're backed by extensive #USG data & analysis—

—all curated under leading expert #China DASD
@Michael_S_Chase

defense.gov/About/Biograph…

Dr. Chase has a long track record of scholarship/analysis:

bit.ly/ProfChase Image
Now—my personal recs:

1) @SecDef, pls. define #PRC "pacing challenge."
2) Ensure we're ready for threat to #Taiwan peaking by 2027.
3) Ensure NSS, etc. FULLY reflect CMPR realities.
3a) Preserve (extended)deterrence 100% in #Nuke Posture Review.

Details: 19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
Parting shot:

#CMPR shows urgency/stakes in deterring #PRC aggression.

Next yr's #defense #budget must align money/mouth.

As @POTUS himself once so wisely said—“Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget & I’ll tell you what you value.”

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

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More from @AndrewSErickson

Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
May 12
Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI just published a seminal future-forecast article @ForeignAffairs.

tl;dr — #Demographics matter because people matter, greatly. #Depopulation propels #China on unprecedented #SCurved slowdown, as Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I wrote in 2011: East Asia & Russia face catastrophic aging.

Read this #demographic expose in full—or, at very least, these key excerpts...chinasignpost.com/2011/08/15/chi…
"In the decades immediately ahead, East #Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic #demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—#China, #Japan, #SouthKorea, & #Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of #depopulation, in which they will age dramatically & lose millions of people. According to projections from the #Population Division of @UNDESA, China’s & Japan’s populations are set to fall by 8% & 18%, respectively, between 2020 & 2050. South #Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12%. & Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated 8%. The US population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12%."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…
"Because of the effects on #China, East #Asia’s loss promises to be Washington’s geopolitical gain. But the drag on #EastAsia’s democracies will create problems for Washington."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…
Read 18 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Dec 27, 2023
New! #CMSI Note 1: “#Admiral Hu to the Helm: #China’s New #Navy Commander Brings Operational Expertise”



Honored to inaugurate this @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime series with Director @ChrisHSharman!

Here’s what you need to know now about new #PRC #naval leader #HuZhongming (#胡中明)...bit.ly/HuZhongmingImage
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On 25 December 2023, Commander-in-Chief #Xi Jinping, in his capacity as Central #Military Commission Chairman, promoted Vice Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明) to Admiral & appointed him Commander of the People’s Liberation Army #Navy (PLAN) (#海军司令员).

bit.ly/HuZhongming



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@SECNAV @NavyTimes @B_Mulvaney @roderick_s_lee @EBKania @ChongJaIan @CollinSLKoh @knmccauley1 @ZackCooper @ajphelo @ChinaMaritime Perspectives & Key Take-Aways:

#Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明)’s operational experience commanding both #submarines & surface #ships will enable him to guide PLA #Navy efforts to improve coordination across #warfare domains.


/@BonnieGlaser bit.ly/HuZhongming



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Read 14 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Oct 25, 2023
"To spend time in #China at the end of #Xi’s 1st decade is to witness a nation slipping from motion to stagnation &, for the 1st time in a generation, questioning whether a #Communist superpower can escape the contradictions that doomed the #SovietUnion."

newyorker.com/magazine/2023/…
"The clips circulate abroad with the mocking caption 'West #NorthKorea,' but at home #censors vigilantly guard #Xi’s honor; a leak from a #Chinese social-media site last year revealed that it blocks no fewer than 564 nicknames for him, including Caesar, the Last Emperor, & 21 variations of Winnie-the-#Pooh."

"Year by year, #Xi appears more at home in the world of the man he calls his 'best & closest friend,' Vladimir #Putin. In March, after @IntlCrimCourt issued an arrest warrant for the #Russian President on #war-#crimes charges, Putin hosted Xi in #Moscow, where they described relations as the best they have ever been. Clasping hands for a farewell in the doorway of the #Kremlin, Xi told Putin, 'Right now there are changes—the likes of which we haven’t seen for a hundred years—& we are the ones driving these changes together.' Putin responded, 'I agree.'"
Read 39 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
Honored to be cited by @iandenisjohnson @NewYorker:
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

"Andrew Erickson, a professor @NavalWarCollege & a visiting professor at @Harvard, said he’s seen no evidence that #China..."

For further background, see: sites.harvard.edu/coexistence/
thewirechina.com/2022/12/04/fix…
...wants to reciprocate, citing #China’s refusal to discuss meaningful arms control. “I don’t see a basis for deep coöperation” with #Xi’s China, Erickson said. “I’m sad to say that.”

newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

KEY: In what areas is the #PRC under Xi willing to accommodate the US?
•To make the first move in doing so?
•Can anyone name one specific example?

Moreover, in the #PRC under #Xi, is there anything like an equivalent to this high-profile conference @Harvard, w a concluding panel on the subject of “Toward Coexistence 2.0: What Should #CHINA Do?”
Read 35 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Oct 4, 2022
Some context re. reported speed of #NorthKorean #missile:

All #ballistic #missiles are #hypersonic (faster than Mach 5) at some point in their flight. N.Germany’s V-2, deployed Sept. 1944, was hypersonic during its boost phase. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (#ICBMs)… 1/n
…, first deployed by the US in 1959, are high-hypersonic (Mach 25) throughout their entire flight. Subsequent decades have witnessed the emergence of “#hypersonic” #missile systems that can maneuver instead of following a fixed parabolic trajectory, including #ASBMs, #HGVs… 2/n
…and air-breathing supersonic combustion ramjets (#scramjets). The US investigated maneuvering re-entry vehicles in the late 1970s, the #SovietUnion #HGVs in the mid-1980s; both failed. In 1981, the US fielded the #PershingII medium-range #ballistic #missile (#MRBM), whose… 3/n
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Jul 31, 2022
As #Kissinger shouted at 1969 football game, "On what theory?"
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…

An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:

Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles.
"Ducks in a Row" model ≠ theoretical speculation.

#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).

DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."

>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu… ImageImageImageImage
"Ducks in a Row" model allows ZERO room for complacency.

#Xi may well PREFER +-5 years more #PLA prep to attempt max-stakes mark on #history.

But many factors now in play, stakes high, margins thin.

#PRC rhetoric re @SpeakerPelosi trip suggests growing tensions moving forward. ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets

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