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Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
@AndrewSErickson
Nov 12, 2021 • 9 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
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Honored to be interviewed by @GrecianFormula on @DeptofDefense's 2021 #China #Military Power Report!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

Read my big picture takeaways & recommendations for @POTUS/@SecDef @19_forty_five!

Implications for #NationalSecurity Strategy, #Nuclear Posture Review.
#Pentagon's #China #Military Power Report is a 173-page treasure trove!

After my all-nighter 6-page summary—bit.ly/DoD-CMPR—I'm still finding food for thought...

Here are some new reflections from my interview w/ @GrecianFormula @19_forty_five:

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po… Image
CMPR's biggest revelation? Most would say #nuclear #weapons buildup:

#PRC may have up to 700 deliverable #nuke warheads by 2027, of which roughly 200 warheads will be on land-based #ICBMs capable of threatening US; & at least 1,000 nuke warheads by 2030.

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
On that note, @fravel shows only top #PRC leaders shape #nuclear #strategy:

bit.ly/ChinaMilStrat

After relative restraint under #Mao/#Deng, are we now witnessing more assertive nuclear posture emerging under #Xi?

Numbers, triad, hypersonics, possible low-yield suggests so.. ImageImage
Now let's review: bit.ly/CMPRs

Biggest change since 2020 #CMPR?—2030 #PRC #nuclear warhead projection increase from ~doubling to ~quadrupling!

Since 2000 CMPR?—Suggestion that PRC now seeks to equal/exceed US power & influence by mid-century!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po… Image
“The #PRC’s #strategy aims to achieve ‘the great rejuvenation of the #Chinese nation’ by 2049 to match or surpass US global influence & power, displace US alliances & #security partnerships in the #IndoPacific region, & revise the #international order to be more advantageous....” Image
The CMPR doesn't make these statements lightly. Rather, they're backed by extensive #USG data & analysis—

—all curated under leading expert #China DASD
@Michael_S_Chase

defense.gov/About/Biograph…

Dr. Chase has a long track record of scholarship/analysis:

bit.ly/ProfChase Image
Now—my personal recs:

1) @SecDef, pls. define #PRC "pacing challenge."
2) Ensure we're ready for threat to #Taiwan peaking by 2027.
3) Ensure NSS, etc. FULLY reflect CMPR realities.
3a) Preserve (extended)deterrence 100% in #Nuke Posture Review.

Details: 19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…
Parting shot:

#CMPR shows urgency/stakes in deterring #PRC aggression.

Next yr's #defense #budget must align money/mouth.

As @POTUS himself once so wisely said—“Don’t tell me what you value, show me your budget & I’ll tell you what you value.”

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

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More from @AndrewSErickson

Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Mar 18
No! With all due respect, China's not building & training with unique #Shuiqiao-class Bridge Barges "to deliver humanitarian supplies to disaster-struck regions with poor port infrastructure"!

telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…
Make no mistake: #China's new bridge-barges are purpose-built for a #Taiwan invasion scenario. They embody the seriousness with which the PRC under #Xi is pursuing control & absorption of Taiwan by any & all means possible.

The Shuiqiao-185, Shuiqiao-135, Shuiqiao-110—so named for their hull length (bridge stowed), as measured in #OpenSource commercial imagery—are not multirole platforms like aircraft carriers but rather a dedicated platform for landing high volumes of wheeled & tracked military vehicles on beaches.

There are no other such platforms anywhere in the world, because no other country than China is preparing to try to be able to invade Taiwan.

There is no need to resort to such unique platforms for humanitarian assistance & disaster relief, which is not opposed by hostile shore-based forces.

China under Xi would not waste resources of such a specialized, dedicated system if it were not bore-sighted on taking Taiwan by threat, or use, of force.

Full analysis here: andrewerickson.com/2025/03/shuiqi…
Every type of military equipment comes with its own risks & vulnerabilities. Any platform or system can be attrited if targeted sufficiently.

Incapable of substantial self-defense, #China’s new #Shuiqiao bridge barges represent lucrative targets highly vulnerable on the open ocean, where they could be destroyed by land-based weapons such as ATACMS (the Army Tactical Missile System, a U.S. long-range, precision-strike surface-to-surface missile system) & MLRS (multiple-launch rocket systems).

During a contested military operation, PRC bridge barges cannot hope to survive in isolation. Rather, they would operate as just one part of a large, numerous, diverse offensive & defensive system-of-systems.

To land the Shuiqiaos at an acceptable risk of loss, China’s military forces would first have to suppress #Taiwan defenders’ direct & indirect fire systems (e.g., with up to thousands of PLA rockets ranging from the PLA Army’s numerous PCH191 close-range ballistic missiles to the PLA Rocket Forces’ larger ballistic missiles).

For @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime Studies Institute (#CMSI) analysis on China’s PCH191 CRBM, see: digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-maritime-…
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
May 12, 2024
Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI just published a seminal future-forecast article @ForeignAffairs.

tl;dr — #Demographics matter because people matter, greatly. #Depopulation propels #China on unprecedented #SCurved slowdown, as Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I wrote in 2011: East Asia & Russia face catastrophic aging.

Read this #demographic expose in full—or, at very least, these key excerpts...chinasignpost.com/2011/08/15/chi…
"In the decades immediately ahead, East #Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic #demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—#China, #Japan, #SouthKorea, & #Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of #depopulation, in which they will age dramatically & lose millions of people. According to projections from the #Population Division of @UNDESA, China’s & Japan’s populations are set to fall by 8% & 18%, respectively, between 2020 & 2050. South #Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12%. & Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated 8%. The US population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12%."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…
"Because of the effects on #China, East #Asia’s loss promises to be Washington’s geopolitical gain. But the drag on #EastAsia’s democracies will create problems for Washington."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…
Read 18 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Dec 27, 2023
New! #CMSI Note 1: “#Admiral Hu to the Helm: #China’s New #Navy Commander Brings Operational Expertise”



Honored to inaugurate this @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime series with Director @ChrisHSharman!

Here’s what you need to know now about new #PRC #naval leader #HuZhongming (#胡中明)...bit.ly/HuZhongmingImage
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On 25 December 2023, Commander-in-Chief #Xi Jinping, in his capacity as Central #Military Commission Chairman, promoted Vice Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明) to Admiral & appointed him Commander of the People’s Liberation Army #Navy (PLAN) (#海军司令员).

bit.ly/HuZhongming



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@SECNAV @NavyTimes @B_Mulvaney @roderick_s_lee @EBKania @ChongJaIan @CollinSLKoh @knmccauley1 @ZackCooper @ajphelo @ChinaMaritime Perspectives & Key Take-Aways:

#Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明)’s operational experience commanding both #submarines & surface #ships will enable him to guide PLA #Navy efforts to improve coordination across #warfare domains.


/@BonnieGlaser bit.ly/HuZhongming



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Read 14 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Oct 25, 2023
"To spend time in #China at the end of #Xi’s 1st decade is to witness a nation slipping from motion to stagnation &, for the 1st time in a generation, questioning whether a #Communist superpower can escape the contradictions that doomed the #SovietUnion."

newyorker.com/magazine/2023/…
"The clips circulate abroad with the mocking caption 'West #NorthKorea,' but at home #censors vigilantly guard #Xi’s honor; a leak from a #Chinese social-media site last year revealed that it blocks no fewer than 564 nicknames for him, including Caesar, the Last Emperor, & 21 variations of Winnie-the-#Pooh."

"Year by year, #Xi appears more at home in the world of the man he calls his 'best & closest friend,' Vladimir #Putin. In March, after @IntlCrimCourt issued an arrest warrant for the #Russian President on #war-#crimes charges, Putin hosted Xi in #Moscow, where they described relations as the best they have ever been. Clasping hands for a farewell in the doorway of the #Kremlin, Xi told Putin, 'Right now there are changes—the likes of which we haven’t seen for a hundred years—& we are the ones driving these changes together.' Putin responded, 'I agree.'"
Read 39 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
Honored to be cited by @iandenisjohnson @NewYorker:
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

"Andrew Erickson, a professor @NavalWarCollege & a visiting professor at @Harvard, said he’s seen no evidence that #China..."

For further background, see: sites.harvard.edu/coexistence/
thewirechina.com/2022/12/04/fix…
...wants to reciprocate, citing #China’s refusal to discuss meaningful arms control. “I don’t see a basis for deep coöperation” with #Xi’s China, Erickson said. “I’m sad to say that.”

newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

KEY: In what areas is the #PRC under Xi willing to accommodate the US?
•To make the first move in doing so?
•Can anyone name one specific example?

Moreover, in the #PRC under #Xi, is there anything like an equivalent to this high-profile conference @Harvard, w a concluding panel on the subject of “Toward Coexistence 2.0: What Should #CHINA Do?”
Read 35 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Oct 4, 2022
Some context re. reported speed of #NorthKorean #missile:

All #ballistic #missiles are #hypersonic (faster than Mach 5) at some point in their flight. N.Germany’s V-2, deployed Sept. 1944, was hypersonic during its boost phase. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (#ICBMs)… 1/n
…, first deployed by the US in 1959, are high-hypersonic (Mach 25) throughout their entire flight. Subsequent decades have witnessed the emergence of “#hypersonic” #missile systems that can maneuver instead of following a fixed parabolic trajectory, including #ASBMs, #HGVs… 2/n
…and air-breathing supersonic combustion ramjets (#scramjets). The US investigated maneuvering re-entry vehicles in the late 1970s, the #SovietUnion #HGVs in the mid-1980s; both failed. In 1981, the US fielded the #PershingII medium-range #ballistic #missile (#MRBM), whose… 3/n
Read 8 tweets

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