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Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Johnson resigns. Articles forthcoming but snap analysis: 1/ May's 'continue as normal' act in the Commons will last maximum 48 hours. The Chequers deal is dead...
2/ Rumours/reports that May will try to form some kind of national govt with ultra-Remain Labour MPs to deliver the soft Brexit. If so they can kiss goodbye to their careers...
3/ May looked relieved and even laughed during Corbyn's savage takedown of her in Commons. She has to be on the way out.
4/ Total cowardice of ERG/Gove/Fox is explained by fact that May cannot fall without a softer-Brexit leader taking control. Williamson at May's side. Lining himself up, if no-one else is...
5/ Sequence now likely: stagger through to recess. No White Paper. Barnier/Macron signal Chequers agreement useless, rejects out of hand. May makes final move to Norway+ deal early September. Total war inside Tory party before Brum Conference
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A Christmas message to the Conservative Party - enough with hard-right Jacobinism... get practical about a very soft Brexit or none ... (longer version on my @YouTube channel...)
Here's the full version:
Here's the @NewStatesman article where I argue the Tories have become as Jacobin and crazed as the people Edmund Burke railed against in 1790!
newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Read 3 tweets
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Headlines full of liberal centrist demands on Corbyn to launch no confidence vote and call for 2nd referendum... if only liberal elite not spent two years trying to destroy him... Thread: 1/
2/ ... when the business elite simultaneously declare themselves "terrified" of a Corbyn Govt yet urge him to bring down Tories, what's really going on? A struggle for agency...
3/ There's no clear party representing the globalist ruling class in U.K. - Tories broken, Labour in hands of working class base, Libs irrelevant, SNP checked out of the motel...
Read 10 tweets
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Okay so I've been modelling the "indicative votes" route in Parliament supported by Rudd, Lidington etc... 1/ To model "every conceivable" option you have to model Labour's; let's call it Norway-minus...
2/ Suppose you ask MPs to pick ONLY their most favoured option. My guess is 60 Tories go for No Deal; 140 for Canada FTA; the rest split 55:60 for Norway Plus and PV...
3/ 10x DUP support Canada; 39 SNP/PC support Norway Plus; 1x Green supports PV; Libdems support PV
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Small thread to confidently predict the #Brexit end game. Quite simply there is no other plausible scenario then this..

1/ increasingly clear what will happen with #Brexit. The EU will take the #Chequers deal, tweak it, likely beyond recognition, so it fits them.
2/ ..as there is now no time left for negotiations, May will have little resistance to EU. It will be a Canada+ deal with as many optional extras that prompt payment of £39bn can buy - probably not that much. NIreland will be fudged.

Then the great House of Commons showdown...
3/ the great parliamentary showdown simply won’t happen. 650 MPs will be faced with horrible but ultimately easy choice: a lousy deal or a catastrophic no deal. 200 Tory MPs will back govt. it will only take a few dozen Labour MPs to abstain or vote for #brexit and it will pass.
Read 11 tweets
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No alternative Brexit plan yet from the ERG. But @SteveBakerHW tells PA May risks "catastrophic split" in party if she doesn't chuck Chequers. Says 80 MPs ready to vote in down in Commons 1/3
@SteveBakerHW Warning comes as @BorisJohnson sketches out a domestic policy platform that will infuriate No10/Hammond & delight grassroots: No more tax hikes under a [Johnson] Tory govt. (no mention of the Treasury warning of a £80bn no-deal black hole in public finances) 2/3
@SteveBakerHW @BorisJohnson Baker warning comes after significant @FT splash saying EU leaders will give Barnier new instructions to help close a Brecit deal at informal Salzburg summit later this month: lifeline for No 10's Chequers plan >> ft.com/content/477ac3…
Read 4 tweets
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Inside the minds of Conservative Party voters - a thread
We seem to be talking a lot about what Conservative MPs want but not a lot about what Conservative voters want
One of the reasons that many in Britain have been repeatedly shocked by political change -Ukip, Corbyn, Brexit- is because they've not been paying sufficient attention to public opinion & voters
Read 23 tweets
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Chequers latest:

Am told that Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey grumbled about the Brexit offering....but Boris was very quiet and Gove enthusiastic while Fox and Grayling (who’s doing Today tomorrow) were on good behaviour: some Tory Eurosceptics annoyed that no one resigned....
Indeed apparently Boris gave a mini speech at dinner supporting the deal, some colleagues found it “moving” apparently, that bit may or may not be sarcastic
this is like being promised Butch Cassidy & The Sundance Kid and getting Love Actually instead
Read 4 tweets
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Chequers. A brief retrospective from my representative's ancestors:

1/5 Here we have James Ramsey MacDonald (first Labour PM) and daughter, Joan, reflecting on national negotiations of the time. Well NOT Brexit. #chequers
2/5 Dennis and The Boss. Good times (mostly). I believe Mr T once said "Chequers is why you get the job". That, and "Shut up, Fool!".
[She'd have sorted out this bloody Brexit nonsense, I can tell you.] #chequers
3/5 Ladies' day. The G8.
Meryl Streep taking a role in close international relations, apparently.
(Blair too, being well non-Brexit. GAME ON, GIRLFRIEND.) #chequers
Read 5 tweets
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Revealed: 50 million Facebook profiles harvested for Cambridge Analytica in major data breach
Whistleblower describes how firm linked to former Trump adviser Steve Bannon compiled user data to target American voters  theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/…
Cambridge Analytica who worked with Trump’s team and the winning Brexit campaign harvested millions of FB profiles of US voters, in the tech giant’s biggest ever data breach, and used them to build a powerful software program to predict and influence choices at the ballot box.
They used personal information taken without authorization in early 2014 to build a system that could profile individual US voters, in order to target them with personalised political advertisements.
Read 89 tweets

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