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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 @nicktolhurst
, 11 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Small thread to confidently predict the #Brexit end game. Quite simply there is no other plausible scenario then this..

1/ increasingly clear what will happen with #Brexit. The EU will take the #Chequers deal, tweak it, likely beyond recognition, so it fits them.
2/ there is now no time left for negotiations, May will have little resistance to EU. It will be a Canada+ deal with as many optional extras that prompt payment of £39bn can buy - probably not that much. NIreland will be fudged.

Then the great House of Commons showdown...
3/ the great parliamentary showdown simply won’t happen. 650 MPs will be faced with horrible but ultimately easy choice: a lousy deal or a catastrophic no deal. 200 Tory MPs will back govt. it will only take a few dozen Labour MPs to abstain or vote for #brexit and it will pass.
4/ the resulting deal will please virtually no one. Leavers will detest it as much of UK economy will defacto follow EU regulatory regime, even staying in sone EU agencies. Remainers wil hate it as its clearly worse than what we have now as members.
5/ the EU deal as it will come to be known will go down in history as the 1st time in history a country negotiated significantly worse terms for itself...out of its own choice.

The UK economy will chug along, perhaps even avoiding recession as...
6/ UK economy will be OK as EU deal will limit some of the worst costs of leaving at expense of giving up its influence both inside & outside EU. The main cost of #brexit will be borne by the declining £ which will encourage tourists & foreign home buyers.....
7/ #brexit will lead to declining industry & supply chains but London will prosper. Tourists & foreign investors will enjoy the cheap £. This will further increase gap btwn South & rest UK.

The next 2 decades will be dominated by...
8/ next2 decades dominated by permanent negotiations with EU on absolutely everything as UK tries to simultaneously claw back influence & benefits of single mkt but from outside. This will create enough discontent to lead to antiEUism as a defining characteristic of UK politics..
9/ #Brexit will be seen to have delivered not an apocalypse, merely a weaker, poorer Britain. Nobody will be able to name any benefits in 5 years time merely extra costs. Ireland will reunify as soon as demographics completes its job. Scotland may leave UK for EU...
10/ but despite this UK won’t rejoin EU. Being outside EU will be seen as a unique almost badge of honour. Anti EUism wil dominate UK politics & much culture.

The relative poverty of many brits to N Europe will be blamed on the EU for a harsh deal & on May for agreeing to it.
11/ further than that - who knows?

May will Possibly one day be due a revisionist comeback. Seen as delivering the best of a bad job. A different fate awaits Farage.

#Brexit itself will pass into language as a dull, stupid thing of little worth & even less point.

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