Thread by @AdeBanqie

I am sorry for those who think 2015 elections was about a gang-up against feckless GEJ & uber corrupt PDP, and also feel 2019 will surely go the same way.

I disagree with this and I will tell you why 2019 will be different.

IssaThread!!!

To start with, a lot of staunch Buharists and those who voted for Buhari will agree that he has been grossly underwhelming in terms of performance and key deliverables.

The expectations were uber high and somewhat unrealistic (maybe that was the Achilles heel of APC).

Back to 2014, Nigerians had waited for PDP to rescue itself from itself and deliver the dividends of democracy. Many waited and felt maybe at some point things will begin to take shape. Nigerians waited for about 15 years.

At some point, Nigerians could wait no more and decided Enough is Enough. They wanted something new but how it would come to pass, no one knew. Little reason you will hear many say "Anyone but Jonathan".

Many heard of the level of corruption under the GEJ regime but didn't know how deep and widespread it was, so Nigerians wanted out of that parasitic relationship.

Now, wanting out is one thing but how is another thing. That was the problem.

ACN and other parties read the mood of the country and knew the only way to unseat a leviathan as PDP was having a common front.

However, beyond the common front, the candidate must be an opposite persona to the "Corrupt" perception given to Jonathan at that time.

APC was formed. The Incorruptible Buhari became their candidate. The rest as they say is History.

A collabo of Nigerians yearning for Change + Strategically astute BAT (SW) + Northern Hero PMB + Marginalized nPDP did the magic. (Note these variables)

The numbers added up.

Now let us talk about 2019.

Many Nigerians who yearned for CHANGE in 2015 are utterly disappointed save some few people. I will talk about those few people in a bit.

So PDP in its judgement think Nigerians desire another CHANGE hence want to do the same thing APC did in 2015.

Let us look at the variables.

Is it true that a majority of Nigerians desire CHANGE?

If true, what kind of change do they desire? The PDP change or an entirely knew person far from this same political order.

With what Nigerians have seen Re tales of wanton looting unravelled in the years PDP held sway, it is very obvious that the stock of PDP is in its lowest ebb.

Sensible Nigerians will say "If PDP ruled for 16 years, why change an APC govt of 3 years?"

Lets assume some Nigerians desire change, it is obvious that folks in the NE will vote in Buhari without blinking. They see how BH has been decimated. They see how many have returned to their homes. They see how normalcy has return.

They know the true meaning of CHANGE.

Should I talk about the thousands of farmers smiling to the bank or the numerous beneficiaries of the successful and transparent Social Investment programmes of the Buhari Admin.

These folks certainly will want Buhari to continue.

Let me stop here. Next Variable.

The next Variable is BAT/South West

Bola Ahmed Tinubu has made his stance known. He is standing with Buhari in 2019 and the entire SW will follow him.

This is one of the MAJOR reasons PDP & their cohorts wont be able to upstage Buhari in 2019.

The third Variable is the Northern Hero, @MBuhari .

For those who have followed this man, it is a fact that no matter what platform Buhari contests on, he has always polled an average of 10m votes.

PDP as it stands today can do NOTHING about this, even with nPDP joining them,

The LAST variable - nPDP.

I am not part of those who downplay the role these folks played in 2015. The destroyed PDP from within.

Lets assume they will all move to PDP or stay in APC to destroy it from within, their impact will be minimal because of the PMB factor. I'll explain

Tambuwal, Kwankwaso, Saraki & others will want to win their states for PDP in 2015, if the decamp but will have to struggle with the Northern Hero, Buhari.

From where I stand, that will be an uphill task. Buhari has a cult following in the North that none of them can upstage.

This thread is becoming longer that I expected. Let me close with the final variable - CARD READERS.

Rigging will be difficult in 2019 and it is no secret that the worse hit will be PDP.

Those Rivers State votes of 2015 wont happen in 2019. Kano votes may be replicated.

You are free to disagree with the points I have made but they remain my personal opinions.

If PDP likes let them merge with all the political parties available, it will make no difference.

The worst mistake will be to make Atiku PDP's flagbearer.

2019 wont be like 2015. END.