Thread by @StevenTDennis

Rand Paul v Brett Kavanaugh on the meaning of the Fourth Amendment.
*Paul sued Obama in 2014 arguing massive metadata program violated it.
*Kavanaugh wrote a year later in a parallel case that it didn't.
*Paul told me privacy will be part of his review.
trib.al/rNaZ4O2

Rand Paul has repeatedly shown he's willing to go it alone. Forced short shutdown over spending; lonely fight to defeat Haspel re: torture; opposed budget resolutions; forced lapse of surveillance authorities; opposed Graham-Cassidy repeal/replace.

But actually tanking a SCOTUS pick - one that major parts of the GOP coalition including the anti-abortion wing want confirmed - would be a bigger rebellion than anything Rand Paul's done before. He'll face enormous pressure.

If he were to vote no, Paul could note there's plenty of time to confirm a replacement SCOTUS pick more to his liking on privacy. Even if Ds take the Senate majority, there'd be more than 3 months from a September vote defeating Kavanaugh before Jan. 3 passing of the gavel.

“The technical capability of the government today to gather, store and search every single phone number used to call or be called in the entire country was inconceivable to the Court in 1979, much less the authors of our Fourth Amendment.”
-Rand Paul lawsuit re: Smith v Maryland

Kavanaugh, by contrast, has a far more expansive view of Smith v Maryland & govt power under the Fourth Amendment than @RandPaul:

We know, because Rand told me, that he loves Gorsuch's dissent in Carpenter.
You should read it in its entirety --(supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/…) -- but this snippet hints at Kavanaugh's path to *maybe* getting Rand's vote:

Because Kavanaugh argued he was bound by Smith etc. - and Gorsuch's opinion agrees that Smith is expansive and binding on lower courts, just wrong, well, you can see where this is likely going, right?

The jujitsu/kabuki Kavanaugh seems likely to need to pull off is to convince Rand Paul he's not happy with Smith precedent either, while convincing the likes of Collins and Murkowski that he will respect other precedents from a similar time frame (Roe!).
A pickle.

But Smith aside, expect Rand to still have a BIG problem with Kavanaugh also ruling the compelled creation of a secret government database tracking every phone call made by everyone would not be an unreasonable search given terrorism.

The idea that a secret database tracking every phone call in the USA is analogous to security checkpoints at airports or drunk driving checkpoints - as Kavanaugh's opinion suggests - would cause Rand Paul's inner libertarian to scream, I think.

On the Judiciary Committee, the one to watch who knows these issues inside and out is @SenMikeLee, the principal sponsor of the USA Freedom Act, who ripped the bulk collection as an affront to the Fourth Amendment. nationalreview.com/2015/04/its-ti…

Also interesting: Mitch McConnell said Friday he hasn't spoken to Rand Paul about Kavanaugh/privacy concerns.