1/ Suggestion: Questions to ask someone who thinks the WTO rules mean Brexit will be painless.
When confronted with someone asserting this, it can be tempting to demand they cite specific articles in WTO Agreements, but most people aren't equipped to have that discussion...
When confronted with someone asserting this, it can be tempting to demand they cite specific articles in WTO Agreements, but most people aren't equipped to have that discussion...
2/ Instead of getting into the weeds, I humbly suggest keeping it high level.
The EU have put Brexit Preparatory notices highlighting day 1 changes which experts have flagged as hugely disruptive to UK-EU trade.
Trucks not being able to cross borders disruptive.
The EU have put Brexit Preparatory notices highlighting day 1 changes which experts have flagged as hugely disruptive to UK-EU trade.
Trucks not being able to cross borders disruptive.
3/ If they believe WTO rules forbid these changes (they don't) then they must also believe:
1. The EU doesn't realize this.
2. The EU realizes this and doesn't care.
Let's consider each.
1. The EU doesn't realize this.
2. The EU realizes this and doesn't care.
Let's consider each.
4/ Theory: The EU doesn't realize they're about to massively breach WTO law (they aren't).
Seems unlikely.
The @EU_Commission has had the lead on negotiating at the WTO, and fighting disputes on behalf of EU Member States for decades.
They know the WTO and have great lawyers.
Seems unlikely.
The @EU_Commission has had the lead on negotiating at the WTO, and fighting disputes on behalf of EU Member States for decades.
They know the WTO and have great lawyers.
5/ Theory: The EU realizes they're about to break WTO law (they aren't) and doesn't care.
In that case, it's fair to ask what you think the WTO will do about it. What are the UK's options?
Well, it can raise a complaint in the relevant Committee and/or it can file a dispute.
In that case, it's fair to ask what you think the WTO will do about it. What are the UK's options?
Well, it can raise a complaint in the relevant Committee and/or it can file a dispute.
6/ A complaint in the Committee doesn't DO anything except name and shame the EU. If you assume they're in breach, you also have to assume they don't care.
Also, the sheer scale of planned disruption means you're talking about hundreds of individual complaints.
Also, the sheer scale of planned disruption means you're talking about hundreds of individual complaints.
7/ The UK could also take the EU to a dispute in the WTO. This would take years to resolve (per issue), and requires the US not killing the WTO Appellate Body before it can rule...
But let's assume for the sake of argument the EU loses (they won't) and they're ruled in breach...
But let's assume for the sake of argument the EU loses (they won't) and they're ruled in breach...
8/ Nothing happens. In our hypothetical, the EU already knew they were in breach and don't care.
The WTO can't force them to change their rules. If the EU doesn't comply, the ONLY thing the WTO Panel can do is allow the UK to levy proportional retaliatory tariffs.
The WTO can't force them to change their rules. If the EU doesn't comply, the ONLY thing the WTO Panel can do is allow the UK to levy proportional retaliatory tariffs.
9/ How much does the UK being able to slap a higher import tax on Italian tomatoes in 2024 help a UK small business which collapsed in 2019 because their drivers lost their EU Freight Operator Certification?
10/ The WTO Rules offer no protection against the coming disruption, and even if they did, they would change nothing in the short-medium term.
Whatever your position on Brexit, complacency and relying solely on the WTO Rules in the event of a no-deal is folly.
/thread
Whatever your position on Brexit, complacency and relying solely on the WTO Rules in the event of a no-deal is folly.
/thread
