1/ A look ahead at Paul Manafort's possible exposure if convicted of some or all of the charges against him. Under the sentencing guidelines, his "Base Offense Level" for many of the counts would probably be a "7" (see, 2B1.1). ussc.gov/sites/default/…
2/ Ultimately, we'll be looking at this table to figure out Manafort's potential sentencing range. ussc.gov/sites/default/…
3/ So Manafort's Base Offense Level (BOL) is a 7. But then, add additional levels based on "relevant conduct". It's a long checklist of level add-ons that the Probation Department Calculates. The worst one for Manafort is the "Loss". See image below. 
4/ Prosecutors have said Manafort hid $16 Million nbcnews.com/politics/polit…. Let's just plug in a loss sample number of $10 million (there are special rules for calculating tax loss--28% of the unreported gross income, for individuals). This is JUST an example/hypothetical number!
5/ Take a look at the chart, and just for a ten million dollar "loss", a defendant gets a 20 level increase! So anyone convicted of defrauding ten million dollars is looking at minimum level 27, with no other level increases.
6/ There are additional level increases for all kinds of things: being a "leader or organizer" (2-4) or using a "sophisticated scheme" (2). Let's just add four, for now. That gets his Offense Level to 31. Remember, this is a very, VERY rough and low estimate/example.
7/ A defendant like Manafort then has the opportunity to put on evidence and ask for a sentence that is not greater than necessary to achieve sentencing goals ("3553 factors"). law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18… But for now, we'll just use a conservative guess at an offense level.
8/ Back to the Table: Even a defendant with a Base Offense Level of 31, and no criminal history, would have a Sentencing Guidelines Range of: 108-135 months. Yikes. 108 months = 9 years. No parole in federal system, but 15% reduction for good time.
9/ The Court need only calculate guidelines range and take them into account, but the Court could--COULD--sentence below guidelines. Often Courts will do this, if defense team makes a compelling argument, and the deft doesn't say anything obnoxious when addressing the Court.
10/ That's why some defendants should not address the Court at sentencing hearings...some defendants have not, let's say, mastered the art of expressing contrition. Especially if they feel wrongly convicted.
