1) If convicted, Manafort’s sentencing guidelines range will likely be measured in hundreds of months, but most similarly situated defendants have a very good shot at a below-guidelines sentence.
2) his dream sentence would be a year-and-a-day. Still only a tiny percent chance he’d get it though.
3) the year-and-a-day sentence is popular because any sentence over a year makes one eligible for a 15% reduction for good time.
4) but this is unrealistic. The “loss” as calculated by the court at sentencing is in the millions.
5) even though the sentencing guidelines are only advisory, not mandatory (per the Supreme Court in a case called Booker), Courts still calculate and consider the applicable range.
6) the loss amount will push Manafort’s range too high, so high that even a below guidelines sentence will still probably be effectively a life sentence.
7) he gets no reductions for acceptance of responsibility (because he went to trial) and he’ll probably get level increases for, e.g., obstructing justice and using a sophisticated scheme.
8) basically he needs “not guilty” across the board to stay out of the Bureau of Prisons.
