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Matthew Chapman @fawfulfan
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
WOW. #INSen poll: Donnelly (D-Inc) 51, Braun (R) 39

While we should be cautious of drawing conclusions from one poll, this cuts against the conventional wisdom that Donnelly is one of the more threatened D incumbents.

theblaze.com/news/2018/08/2…
We should not take our eyes off the ball in Indiana: remember, Evan Bayh led most of the polls around this time in 2016, too.

But it's worth noting, that was a really different race. An open seat in a presidential year vs a D incumbent in a midterm with an unpopular R president.
Here's another note. *If* this poll is accurate, and other polls confirm IN is shifting into the Lean D column, that means control of the Senate is now a coin toss.

That would mean each party is only defending 3 true toss-up seats. FL, MO and ND for Dems; AZ, NV and TN for GOP.
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There are two points everyone should understand:

1) The "border crisis" is completely manufactured by Trump's own policies. If he treated migrants humanely, there would be no crisis.

2) A border wall is not border security and would fix nothing. It's just a vanity project.
Another point people should understand is that most refugees at our border are fleeing from chaos caused by our own policy.

Our drug laws make Central American gangs profitable. Our border laws make traffickers profitable. Our refusal to fund foreign aid makes people flee to us.
Quite simply, we have spent years tossing lit matches into our neighbor's backyard, and when our neighbor comes to our door saying "My house burned down, I need a place to sleep," we're slamming the door in his face.
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Pelosi is going to vote on the bipartisan deal McConnell passed two weeks ago, @SavannahGuthrie. Her bill IS the compromise.

Trump welched on that bill, because he's trying to shift the goalposts of what constitutes a "compromise" toward him. And you're helping him do it.
If Pelosi said, "fine, we'll give you half of what you want for your wall," Trump would then demand a compromise between that and his original demand. Then a compromise between that compromise and his original demand. And so on and so on.

He tried the exact same thing with DACA.
This is what Trump did in business, @SavannahGuthrie, and it's what he does in politics. Agree to something, stiff the other guy, and force them to fight him to be treated fairly.

Only difference is, this time he picked on someone a lot smarter and tougher than he is.
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If I hear one more person making this stupid suggestion I'm going to put a fist through my wall.

The point of 2020 is to elect a good president, not a blah president for the sake of letting someone you like add "VP" to their resume.
If you like Biden, that's fine, support Biden. If you like Beto, that's fine, support Beto.

But STOP with this "have Biden run for just one term then run Beto" bullshit. That's insulting to both of them. It suggests you don't have real confidence in either as a candidate.
Also, to hell with the idea that Kamala Harris would need to take a backseat to anyone on the ticket.

By 2020, she will have had literally the exact same amount of Senate experience as Obama, and *more* experience than him in statewide office overall.
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1/ What is the uniqueness about Spotify and the context in which it started? What was the conventional wisdom and how did it differ?
2/ The time was after Napster died, Lala died (got acquired by Apple), Kazaa got sued out of existence, and the perception was that it was just a license problem.
3/ The conventional view was that things are shifting toward the cloud, do a client/server architecture, get some license and then done.
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If you're watching election results tonight, here's a breakdown of what I'm going to be watching for in the race for Congress as the numbers come in -->
Here are the magic numbers to keep in mind tonight:

Democrats need to flip 23 SEATS in order to win back the House.

Democrats need to flip 2 SEATS in order to win back the Senate.
The first exit polls will land at 5:00pm so we'll have some ideas about makeup of the electorate compared to previous years, etc. The first actual races close at 6:00pm: KY-6 will be the one to watch, with an eye on IN-9, but we won't read *too* much into these.
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Är du oroad över att demokrati och de mänskliga rättigheterna är i fara? Utveckling i världen och här hemma tyder på det. Du som vill göra något för att lyfta fram det viktiga med samtal om demokrati kan nu att agera. Läs tråden
röstamermänskligt.se
#röstamermänskligt
Alla goda röster behövs för att komma bort från den enkelspåriga retoriken där gruppers gälla mot varann.
#röstemermänskligt är en partipolitiskt och religiöst obunden grupp från skilda bakgrunder med en gemensam nämnare: ett mänskligt samhälle
Valkampanjen är öppen för alla. Du behöver inte vara expert. Det du kan göra är att sprida kunskap, informera och samtala om mänskliga rättigheter under #röstamermänskligt eller irl, på gator och torg, med dina bekanta och familjer.
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It's almost as if many Americans' views on trade are loosely held and therefore very susceptible to political rhetoric and media coverage. Or something.
Partisan views on trade, FTAs and tariffs are kinda depressing. BUT they're also useful to debunk the conventional wisdom that the American public has become more protectionist (& now demands protectionism from their elected officials)
The GOP divergence on FTAs and tariffs is perhaps most telling - now that Trump's in charge, FTAs are good again BUT tariffs (which FTAs eliminate) are too!

This isn't a matter of a US electorate demanding more protectionism; it's one of malleable opinions & tribalism.
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1/ Trump said yesterday that he is not planning to fire Mueller (or order his firing). washingtonpost.com/politics/trump… I’ll go against emerging conventional wisdom—or conventional worry—and say that I believe him.
2/ I don’t see any advantage on balance to Trump from canning Mueller. Given Rosenstein’s recent and consistent pledges that he thinks Mueller is doing a fine job, Rosenstein would have to resign if Trump fires Mueller or asks/orders him (Rosenstein) to do so.
3/ I don’t see how Rosenstein’s replacement or anyone below Rosenstein who would serve as Acting AG (because of Sessions’ recusal or possible firing) could plausibly do anything but reappoint a successor.
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😱😱#poll #thread😱😱

🔥Thread of poll for🔥

'THE THIRTY DARK SECRET'
1. Cheated in relationships 🙊
2. Caught red-handed😂
Read 26 tweets

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