1/ Trump said yesterday that he is not planning to fire Mueller (or order his firing). washingtonpost.com/politics/trump… I’ll go against emerging conventional wisdom—or conventional worry—and say that I believe him.
2/ I don’t see any advantage on balance to Trump from canning Mueller. Given Rosenstein’s recent and consistent pledges that he thinks Mueller is doing a fine job, Rosenstein would have to resign if Trump fires Mueller or asks/orders him (Rosenstein) to do so.
3/ I don’t see how Rosenstein’s replacement or anyone below Rosenstein who would serve as Acting AG (because of Sessions’ recusal or possible firing) could plausibly do anything but reappoint a successor.
4/ Even if the person who replaces Rosenstein to supervise the Special Counsel were convinced that Mueller is doing something wrong or has a conflict in some respects, the overall investigation has already yielded fruit and there is a clear justification for it to continue.
5/ Pressure in and out of DOJ to appoint Mueller’s successor, as opposed to killing investigation, would be enormous, as would pressure to appoint someone of integrity/independence who would continue pushing hard. FBI Dir. Wray would continue to investigate until ordered not to.
6/ So I don’t see how firing Mueller gives Trump relief from the investigation. More likely the opposite, since it would call Trump into greater suspicion. Just as it got worse for him after he fired Comey, it would get yet worse for him if he fired Mueller.
7/ And while there are growing numbers of Republicans in Congress who are undermining Mueller, and seemingly fewer than before who are protecting him, the uproar for Trump in Congress, and more broadly in the nation, would be on balance terrible for Trump.
8/ Also, if Trump fires Mueller then M. cannot legally exonerate Trump, which I still think might happen. And Trump is on the verge of big victories—tax reform, increasingly favorable press on ISIS—and his poll numbers have picked up. Firing Mueller dims the glow of success.
9/ This doesn’t mean the attacks on Mueller aren’t strategically motivated. They are. But the point is to weaken Mueller’s credibility for inevitable political battles, especially if impeachment become a live possibility. The Clinton White House tried to do this to Ken Starr.
10/ The attacks are also designed to weaken Mueller politically—to make him look biased, or out of control, or lawbreaking--in case Trump decides to pardon people under investigation.
11/ In sum, Trump might conceivably gain politically by weakening Mueller’s credibility, but not by firing him. So I don’t think he will fire him.
12/ One major flaw in my theory: It assumes that Trump is rational and acts in his own interests.
Related and worth reading: npr.org/2017/12/15/571… END.
