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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
It's almost as if many Americans' views on trade are loosely held and therefore very susceptible to political rhetoric and media coverage. Or something.
Partisan views on trade, FTAs and tariffs are kinda depressing. BUT they're also useful to debunk the conventional wisdom that the American public has become more protectionist (& now demands protectionism from their elected officials)
The GOP divergence on FTAs and tariffs is perhaps most telling - now that Trump's in charge, FTAs are good again BUT tariffs (which FTAs eliminate) are too!

This isn't a matter of a US electorate demanding more protectionism; it's one of malleable opinions & tribalism.
That's kinda sad, but it also means that - a strong "free trade pol" could have a similar, opposite effect
- maybe we shouldn't ditch 70+ yrs of awesome multilateral trade liberalization & economic consensus bc of one very loud guy in the WH?
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Excellent, myth-shattering research from @sffed on American consumption & imports:
frbsf.org/economic-resea…
TL;DR: only ~11% of US consumption dollars are spent on imports (only ~2% from China); BUT abt HALF of these dollars go to US firms/workers & half of imports are inputs /1
More:
Fig 2: when Americans buy imports, the ones "made in CHINA" generate the most revenue (~56 cents for every dollar spent) for US firms/workers;
Fig 3: imports from NAFTA countries (esp Canada) are most often industrial inputs for US manufacturing /2
Also interesting: even for goods (which are more easily tradable) US consumers spend well under half of their dollars (42.4%) on imports.
(Note also the significant shares of US content in imports & vice versa) /3
Read 7 tweets
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Except the vast majority of the consumer benefits of trade, referenced here, accrue to America's poor and middle class, not the "elites."
Meanwhile, subsequent research has shown significant benefits for US manufacturing from the "China shock", eg,
and

and
/2
Then there is the research showing that the rise of Chinese trade competitiveness was due less to US govt/elite action (eg PNTR) than to China's *own liberalization* /3
Read 10 tweets
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Good thread on tariff incidence (though I'm not sure Trump gets this point at all). Also important: in the real world, a lot of things prevent a quick/easy shift in supply or change in import price - contracts, supply chains, consumer preferences, finite global supply, etc.
In Section 301 comments, for example, dozens of US firms noted that, bc of these factors, it'd take YEARS to switch import suppliers, even where adequate non-China supply exists. Others said that US demand outstripped non-China supplies & building new facilities wasn't realistic.
So there are a lot of practical impediments to shifting a tariff burden away from consumers, even where the textbooks say it should be easy.
Read 3 tweets

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1. To address a point that remainers are having fun with... the assertion that Argentina will use our #Brexit circumstances at the WTO to enhance its stake on the Falklands... is totally baloney. You know this of course, but there's a few points worth making. #Trade thread!
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1. So why are the ultra #Brexit morons up in arms about May's ill fated proposal? In a nutshell it comes down to the inability to diverge on standards which then puts limitations on what we can offer by way of trade deals with the rest of the world. In theory that is.
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

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1/ It seems every #trader has to do the same mistakes as their predecessors. There are #wisdowms you will only understand, if you have experienced them yourself. In this thread I will give you the #wisdom, which can make the difference between being broke and driving lambos #btc
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When realizing what profits can be made with trading, many start daytrading and want to #profit from every movement. You won't make more #money. Instead you will lose plenty of time. Watch big time frames and take positions for weeks #btc #trading
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realized profits > unrealized profits

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Read 14 tweets
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Thread: What keeps me up at night about @realDonaldTrump trade policy and tariffs on steel and aluminum #tariffs
“It feels like 2008 again.”

This is what I heard during a phone call with my family in Michigan last night.
My family started a tool and die company in Michigan in 2002 in a tiny garage with rented equipment. Today they employ roughly 40 people.
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