Thread by @ryanstruyk

If you're watching election results tonight, here's a breakdown of what I'm going to be watching for in the race for Congress as the numbers come in -->

Here are the magic numbers to keep in mind tonight:

Democrats need to flip 23 SEATS in order to win back the House.

Democrats need to flip 2 SEATS in order to win back the Senate.

The first exit polls will land at 5:00pm so we'll have some ideas about makeup of the electorate compared to previous years, etc. The first actual races close at 6:00pm: KY-6 will be the one to watch, with an eye on IN-9, but we won't read *too* much into these.

The next poll close at 7:00pm will tell us more. VA-02, VA-07 and VA-10 will be a really good early look at how the night will go. Other potential flips include: FL-6, FL-15, FL-18, FL-26, FL-27 plus Atlanta suburbs GA-06 and GA-07. #INSEN is a key potential GOP Senate flip.

The 7:30pm poll close gives us just a couple more potential flips: NC-09 and OH-12 seem most likely, though NC-02, NC-13, OH-01, OH-14 and WV-03 are on the radar too. This also includes the #WVSEN race.

Hold onto your hats at the 8:00pm poll close. The most likely to flip: IL-06, IL-12, KS-02, ME-02, MI-08, MI-11, NJ-03, NJ-07, NJ-11, PA-01, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-17, TX-07, TX-32. The key Senate races: #FLSEN, #MOSEN and #TNSEN.

9:00pm is another important poll close. Most likely Dem flips include: AZ-02, CO-06, MN-02, MN-03, NM-02, NY-19 and NY-22. But MN-01 and MN-08 could flip back the other way. Senate races to watch: #NDSEN, #AZSEN and #TXSEN.

Here's flip watch for the rest of the night: IA-01, IA-03, UT-04, CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, WA-08 and AK-AL. And two more Senate races to watch: #MTSEN and #NVSEN.