If you doubt expert forecasts of the future of work, you might like Appendix A of our 2017 report (robots.ox.ac.uk/~mosb/public/p…): we present results using only raw extrapolation of employment trends.
This extrapolation is much more optimistic than our forecasts using experts.
This extrapolation is much more optimistic than our forecasts using experts.
The horizontal (x) axis of the plot is the probability of an occupation having a higher share of employment in 2030 than in 2017. The vertical (y) axis is employment, or the number of jobs.
My personal view is that any attempt to adopt a purely data-driven approach to forecasting something as complicated as the future of work is just as likely to fail as using only expert judgement. Our report adopted a combination of the two.
As an example of how relying only only extrapolating employment trends can fail, imagine yourself in 1910, trying to forecast the future prospects for laundresses.
This plot courtesy of @carlbfrey: thanks Carl.
