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Hurricane Watcher @GodlessNZ
, 11 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
(1) OK listen up. Hurricane #Florence is going to cause extreme flooding, wind & storm surge over a huge area. Due to shallow water off SC & NC, already sodden soil in ~6 states, & the storm's power, size, & forward speed. Explained in this brief story: axios.com/hurricane-flor…
(2) You can follow the thread I have going at the time, which covers all hurricane and storm threats to US territory. Current thread is below. I also have a couple of Twitter lists & links to other info sources there: ]

(3) I'm going to add below some photos and other things from my 2017 coverage of #Harvey #Irma #Maria and #Nate. That storm season was a historic event in American emergency management and community life. There were moments like #NoPoliticsOnTheBoat:
(4) The details of the back to back 2017 hurricanes are fresh in my mind, but I think there's value in remembering key moments as we prepare for hurricane #Florence.

Everyone who can evacuate before this storm, should. There will be fewer to rescue like during #Harvey flooding:
(5) #Harvey #TexasCanHandleAnything #CantDispenseThePence

(6) #DontMessWithTexas headline during #Harvey in 2017.
(7) An impending monster hurricane should sharpen one's focus. If it's you or your home, pick you.

#Florence
(8) In the aftermath of #Irma, I heard reports that 16,000 tree-clearing and power restoration workers went to Florida from 30 states. They did an incredible job. #Americanism #Florence

(9) On 9/10/17 Lauren Durham and Michael Davis, both deployed in @AirNatlGuard for #HurricaneIrma relief, got married, wearing their fatigues.
(10) Members from various federal law enforcement agencies rest before deploying to areas affected by Hurricane #Irma at Moody Air Force Base, GA on 9/11/17.

I love the state flags around the room.
(11) Democrats are so mad that the federal response in PR was so good. They tried several false narratives, to avoid facing up to what their own people did wrong there.

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#Florence #Harvey #Irma #Maria #Nate #NoPoliticsOnTheBoat #TexasCanHandleAnything #CantDispenseThePence #DontMessWithTexas #Americanism #HurricaneIrma

More from @GodlessNZ see all

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(1) Officer Ronil Singh was a Fijian-Indian who migrated legally to the US & become a police officer. There has been a brain drain of Fijian-Indians over the past 30 years bc of racism & repeated coups. Many came to NZ... they are welcomed here, usually pillars of the community.
(2) The most recent coup in Fiji was in 2006. Naval Commodore Frank Bainimarama overthrow the lawfully elected govt at the barrel of a gun. Despite murder and repression, the international community "forgot" all about it & even gave him a UN role. Of course.
(3) In fact, Fiji's violent dictator, Frank Bainimarama, was head of the UN's climate change conference for 2017. How nice.
Read 20 tweets
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(1) Secretary Mattis' resignation letter of December 20, 2018.

Source: an ABC reporter at the Pentagon. Hopefully this is the real letter.

Assuming it is, here are my thoughts on it:
(2) I love, love, love General James Mattis and always have, from the moment I first learned who he is. That will never change.

I have two possible explanations for why he chose to mention "respect for allies" & being harder on adversaries in this letter.
(3) Two MAIN possible explanations. Sure, there will be others.

It could be 4D chess kabuki theater, he's certainly capable of it.

Or, it could be his genuine feelings and desire to distance himself from some of Trump's actions. Sad.
Read 20 tweets
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(1) "I got tired of hearing from people who can’t see what I see. It’s just a phase. I’ll be more charitable at some point. Right now I prefer the company of old postcards."

quodverum.com/2018/12/354/th…
(2) WWI flamethrower expert Thomas Wictor bowed out of social media and is now writing at thomaswictor.com and quodverum.com. I'm writing at QV, too, but at a ratio of about 1:10 TW articles.

His above quote resonated with me so I want to "unpack it" a little.
(3) Firstly, I am keenly looking forward to the day when we can all converse at QV, bc the feedback loop is vital to my process of learning, reflecting, and writing about politics. Your replies to my threads make a huge difference to the final product.
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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FAKE NEWS

This is so brilliant I just had to show it to you.

People making audition tapes for fake news.
I hope this becomes a trend. I would love to see more videos like this for the next two months. Please around your family and friends together and make one of these. The more ridiculous to the better!
FakeWeather
Read 31 tweets
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Storm surge built up over of several days, starting when #florence was a cat 4 or strong cat 3 storm. That "baked in” the roughly-10ft storm surge from Cape Hatteras to Myrtle Beach, NC.
@MichaelEMann at gu.com/p/9ckb6/stw
Because warmer oceans mean more moisture in the atmosphere, "for each 1C of warming, there is about 7% more moisture in the air". #florencehurricane is generating about 10% more rainfall due to 1.5C-above-normal temps, increasing risk of additional inland flooding.
The destructive potential of a hurricane is the cube of wind speed. (News to me.) #florencehurricane had a 11% increase in wind speed due to warm water; that's a 33% increase in destructive potential.
Read 6 tweets
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Another day, another couple of totally expected track wobbles. Minor and not shifting impacts all that much.

1/
Florence is HUGE. Put the eye in Columbia SC and the cloud shield would darken the skies from Manteo to Murphy. Plenty of wind in there, but that’s not the main story!

2/
Yes, 40+ mph winds extend some 200 mikes from the center. And yes, the storm weakened in terms of wind.

But that’s not what Florence will go down in the record books for, friends. The winds will play second fiddle to the water - both storm surge and inland flooding.

3/
Read 11 tweets
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OK you guys, my intention is not to scare anyone with this message.

But Hurricane #Florence—the storm bound for North Carolina—is going to be about the size of North Carolina when it arrives.

This is what it will look like, according to the latest high-res model prediction:
And it will likely arrive as a Category 4 -- and potentially become the strongest East Coast hurricane landfall in recorded history, with sustained winds of >140mph.

Here's what that will do:
"Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."
nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
*After* that, the latest weather models predict #Florence will stall out for four days -- similar to what happened to Hurricane Harvey last year in Texas.

Much of North Carolina & Virginia could be dealing with their worst flood in history.

Again, this is the current forecast.
Read 6 tweets
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Hurricane #Florence Update, 4pm:

Mid-day models continue to be unanimous: Florence is on track to landfall in the Carolinas on Thursday, likely as a Cat 4.

Longer-range models are still hinting at Florence stalling for 3+ days—creating a potentially catastrophic flood in NC/VA.
Where exactly #Florence makes landfall (and how far inland it goes after landfall) will determine the area most at risk of heavy rain and extreme inland flooding.

We're talking a multi-state region—potentially as far north as West Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania.
Hurricanes rotate counter-clockwise, so the northern edge of the storm is always rainier -- with air supplied straight from the ocean.

That's why Virginia is at a much greater risk of flooding right now than South Carolina.

Keep watch this storm—even if you're not in the cone.
Read 6 tweets

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