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Noah Smith @Noahpinion
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
THIS!!!
When you see a paper that relies on a structural model, your first question should be "Could this question be addressed satisfactorily with a natural experiment?"

If the answer is yes, close the tab and look for a paper that actually does that.
The exception to this rule is if the makers of the structural model can actually show it fits the data well, instead of just finding best-but-still-awful-fit values for the parameters and calling it a day. But come on, who does that?
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One thing I think would help reduce elite Millennial burnout/disappointment/rage is for people to stop thinking that their job should save the world.

"Save the world" and "make the world a better place" are probably just things employers tell you to get you to work for cheap.
Maybe your job will give you meaning and purpose and a sense of doing good for the world.

Or maybe it'll just make you some money so you can raise some kids, have some pet rabbits, and be active in your local community.

There's more than one way to get meaning in life.
Also, people glorify saving the world when it probably just gives you PTSD.

We like watching Star Wars and Lord of the Rings and whatever, but we wouldn't want to actually fight Darth Vader or slog through Mordor. That would cause major burnout!
Read 3 tweets
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1/Since Trump's demand for his Wall is in the headlines, I thought it would be a good time for a thread about a history book I just read:

"Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America", by Daniel Tichenor (2002)

amazon.com/Dividing-Lines…
2/The book starts out with a chapter or two of dense, unnecessary political science jargon, saying that - essentially - U.S. immigration policy tends to move very slowly, because powerful politicians and officials resist the tide of public opinion.
3/But most of the book is an extremely readable, eye-opening history of U.S. immigration policy, from the founding through the 1990s.

It shows how the immigration debates we're now having have been with us, in some form or another, for a very long time.
Read 27 tweets
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Thread about why very high tax rates on very rich people don't raise much revenue (or reduce inequality much, even within the top tier).

Our system has a million loopholes. Closing them is more important than raising top rates.
That's not to say there's a trade-off between raising the top rate and closing loopholes! They are complements, not substitutes.

But if you just raise the top rate without closing loopholes, you'll likely be disappointed.
The fact is, raising effective taxes on the very rich will require a comprehensive sustained push on a large number of policy fronts. There is not going to be one silver bullet.
Read 6 tweets

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Oh Christ must we have this argument again. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS FUNDAMENTALS IT’S ALL FRAMEWORKS ALL THE WAY DOWN. Learn whatever helps you get the job done and in any order that makes sense to you.
Telling people they are learning the wrong things because they’re not the things you learned is just gatekeeping and it’s indefensible.
HTML is (or more accurately was) a framework built on top of SGML. When I started out in web dev, experienced devs insisted it was important that I know SGML first before learning HTML. How many working devs even know about SGML?
Read 12 tweets
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Atiyah has promised this to be accessible to non-mathematicians. #HLF18
On volumes of published work, Euler definitely beats Riemann, 73:1. #HLF18
"Solve the Riemann hypothesis, and you become famous; if you're already famous, you become infamous." #HLF18
Read 36 tweets
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Live Q & A with Q
(Board is lagging due to high traffic)
First question...

Anything about Trudeau...

What about the owl?
Q's answer.

Canada was used to help spy on Trump through the FVEY agreement and to funnel uranium to final destinations. (Russia, Syria, Iran)

Billionaire(s) murdered [187]?
🦉
Read 80 tweets
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First question in mayoral debate tonight on housing: More than 50 per cent of Vancouver residents are renters. What measures will you implement at the city level to bring relief to renters? #vanpoli @vanelxn18
Bremner: Three-year action plan, 50,000 to 70,000 new units on the books. Drop the red tape, get rid of the CACs that were turning rentals into condos. "We cannot wait." #vanpoli #vanelxn18
Kennedy: My plan is to build 85,000 units over 10 years, 60 per cent for renters, 25,000 would be market rents. Also have to look after current renters: I would bring renters' advocate to city to help with legal problems. #vanpoli #vanelxn18
Read 89 tweets
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OMG. The greatest morning since the dotard sh*tshow began.
Mueller has released the evidence list against a Genovese-Vor made man.
Paul Manafort.
I never imagined I'd see anything so beautiful.
Still making my way thru it. Early highlights...
- THREAD -
scribd.com/document/38421…
1. Uh-oh, @BernieSanders. You made an oopsie with Tad Devine. Why so quiet on him for so, so long? 🤔🖕
2. Uh-oh Paulie (and Gates and Tad). Seven years of work for #PedoPutin's bitch, Yanukovych, before a single FARA filing. That's very bad.
Let's spell out FARA again for folks: FOREIGN AGENTS registration act.
Read 14 tweets
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1. For the moment the Torybots (compliant activists) are satisfied with Mrs May's proposal. To the uninitiated it sounds like a reasonable proposal and if there weren't already an established system for movement of goods it would be but as a real world proposal it just won't fly.
2. What Mrs May is asking for is an overall weakening of the EU system, placing authority over its lowest market entry requirement in the hands of the UK government - a non-EU member. This it cannot do.
3. In order to have free movement of goods you need a number of secondary mechanisms, not least recognition of qualifications and authorisations. Simply relaxing borders is not a legal option. It isn't going to happen.
Read 16 tweets

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