Thread by @james_acton32

<THREAD>The #2020 Commission by @ArmsControlWonk—a belated Twitter review.

Warning: Contains a few spoilers (though, in fairness, they pale in comparison to the one in the book's title.)

(1/12)

amazon.com/Commission-Rep…

This review is a bit belated, partly because I’ve been slammed but also because I delayed reading the book, fearing it would be both terrifying and plausible—and it is…

(2/12)

The plausibility works at two levels: the micro (a multitude of painstakingly researched details) and the macro (the overall plot).

(3/12)

.@ArmsControlWonk can--just occasionally—be a bit obsessive. 😉 In fiction, this trait serves him well, leading to prose full of colorful details—the firing sequences for South Korean missiles, the layout of Mar-a-Largo, Japanese fire-fighting culture…

(4/12(

More importantly, the plot works at the macro level. Decision-makers act rationally given the available information—albeit with catastrophic results. In fact, the plot graphically illustrates two key themes from the recent literature on escalation.

(5/12)

First, threats of regime change, even if unintentional, could lead to catastrophic escalation. Keir Lieber and Daryl Press have argued this persuasively—which is interesting because, while L&P and @ArmsControlWonk disagree on policy, they do agree on the underlying risk.

(6/12)

The second theme is the escalation risks of "entanglement" between nuclear and nonnuclear capabilities. @ArmsControlWonk draws on evidence that North Korea uses the same cell phone network for civilian communications and nuclear command and control…

(7/12)

…when the network is overwhelmed by civilian calls, after a small strike by South Korea, it looks to Kim Jong-un like the United States has launched a cyber attack on the North Korean nuclear command-and-control system.

(8/12)

I question whether such risks have really been internalized by U.S. war planners. If reading the book gives a few of them a few sleepness nights, so much the better.

(9/12)

Other readers may also suffer from insomnia, even (especially?) if they are powerless to do anything about the risks—but they will at least get some laughs along the way…

(10/12)

…the fight over the “nuclear football” under a putting green at Mar-a-Largo is laugh-out-loud funny, but @ArmsControlWonk is at his satirical best when CNN cuts away to a hair loss commercial in the middle of covering nuclear attacks on U.S. cities.

(11/12)

Full disclosure: Given that I SURVIVE THE WAR (I give testimony to the commission), I’m not a totally unbiased observer. But it really is as brilliantly plausible and terrifying as earlier reviewers have suggested. Go buy it.

(12/12)

amazon.com/Commission-Rep…