An interesting, easy to miss, sentence from WaPo's piece on Manchin and the Kavanaugh vote tonight. 
Note the phrasing here—Republicans think they can get Manchin "if they can get 50" votes without him. But they only need a total of 50, since Pence can break a tie if needed.
Now, this may be an error—@seungminkim, can you comment?—and what they meant to say was that the GOP believes that if they can get to 49, Manchin may get them to 50, but that's not what the piece currently says.
This is something I've seen suggested elsewhere, and it makes sense—it's a very different thing for Manchin to be the vote that puts Kavanaugh over the top, and he'll catch a LOT more hell if he plays that role. The decision to be 51 carries much less downside.
If all that's true, and Manchin is potentially willing to be 51 but not 50, it means the GOP needs Flake plus at least one of Collins or Murkowski (Or C&M but not Flake, though that seems less likely). Flake plus Manchin isn't enough.
(BTW, I agree with those who are commenting that Manchin is most likely only available to the GOP if they don't need him. The passage I screenshot is ambiguous, though, as it refers to the GOP needing 51 senators to put K on the Court, which isn't true.)
TLDR: If Murkowski is a no, and Collins sticks with Murkowski, the GOP may be screwed. Maybe.
