The likelihood of @duponline signing up to any agreement that creates a different regulatory environment for NI to the rest of the UK is still basically nil. The different structure would not just relate to a border but also to the governance of the single market. In essence...
NI would remain within at least parts of the single market – subject to rules set by Brussels, in which the Republic of Ireland would have a say. Sinn Fein will continue to be a political force in the Republic – meaning that they and the Republic would have more influence over...
the single market, and hence the NI economy, than London or Stormont. This would doubtless have a positive impact on the NI economy since it would still have access to, and practically be part of, the single market, but the likelihood of the DUP agreeing not only to cast NI...
adrift from the UK in terms of regulation, but also hand the power to set those regulations not only to Brussels, but also to Dublin, is near zero.
London’s ability to influence single market regulations will be tiny, while Stormont’s voice will be negligible compared to Dublin.
London’s ability to influence single market regulations will be tiny, while Stormont’s voice will be negligible compared to Dublin.
Again, all good for the NI economy, but if you’re a unionist whose whole career has been about keeping close to London and away from Dublin, you’re not going to be thrilled.
The diplomatic representatives of London and NI in Brussels would have to influence the decisions from the outside without any real decision making power, while competing with thousands of other lobbyists in Brussels.
As a result the nationalists and the Republic would wield an outsized political influence over Northern Ireland, and the unionists would lose much of theirs when the backstop falls into place. Good for the NI economy – bad for the unionists – and hence a no go for @duponline
