1) Irish PM in Brussels for crucial talks today. The Irish backstop is THE main stumbling block to completing the UK’s withdrawal agreement from the EU. Will Varadkar push for more EU openness to U.K. proposals?
2) Varadkar is seeing (separately) the Pres of the European Council (who represents all EU leaders in Brussels) and Commission man Barnier who leads Brexit negotiations for the EU. Are there differences in opinion appearing in EU over a possible backstop solution?
3) EU insists there must be a legally binding backstop agreement - a fallback scenario that may never be used but wld guarantee that -whatever the future relationship between the EU and U.K. after Brexit - there would never be a new harder border between NIreland and Ireland
4) But the impasse over Ireland is such that it could trigger a no deal scenario that would be costly and chaotic for the EU not just the U.K. And in terms of trade Ireland wld be the first EU member state to loose out if trade ties massively hit
5) There is no sign of the EU backing down over having the backstop written into the legally binding withdrawal agreement but there are signs of some warming in some EU circles to UK idea of all the UK staying in the customs union to avoid the need for checks in Ireland
6) That idea was rejected in past by Barnier as the PM said it would only be a temporary measure until a new EU-UK post Brexit relationship of friction-free trading was up and running. The Commission insists the backstop cannot be time-limited
7) But at this stage in negotiations and with the U.K. proposing to have regulatory checks between NI and the rest of the U.K. in addition .. This could be where EU-U.K. negotiations on the backstop and thereby on finishing the rest of the withdrawal agreement progress
8) Well maybe progress in Brussels. What will Parliament make of it back home?
