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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Our NBA predictions are ready! Which is a probably a good thing, since the season starts tomorrow. According to #Analytics, the Warriors are good. 53eig.ht/2En8Fdc
In a change this year, **we'll be updating player projections and team depth charts as the season goes along**.

In prior years, we'd only updated these once (before the season), which led to our preseason projections being smart but our in-season projections being weird/dumb.
We also re-examined our playoff experience bonus:
—You want to use a team's *long-term* performance to project the playoffs.
—Whereas *short-term* performance is more predictive in the regular season.
—Experience matters but not as much our model stated last year. @PhilBirnbaum
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Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
Read 3 tweets
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Not sure this is a fight worth getting into but FWIW, as someone who knows a relatively large amount about New York restaurants, this claim—that the restaurant where AOC worked was put out of business by a minimum wage hike—is dubious at best.
The restaurant, Coffee Shop, was closed mostly it occupied a lot of square footage and because rents are very high in Union Square, where it's located. A ton of restaurants in that area, including the iconic Union Square Cafe, have recently closed or relocated.
The owner did cite the minimum wage as one of a "combination of factors", but also said most of his employees were already making above the NYC minimum wage. Also, the concept was pretty dated, and the restaurant was poorly reviewed on Yelp, etc. fxn.ws/2F8ds1T
Read 4 tweets
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My basic view on Warren's chances is bearish. For whatever reason (she's seen as old news? the DNA test? sexism/she reminds voters of Hillary?) her polling has been quite poor especially given her high name recognition. Her margins of victory in MA also have also not been great.
BUT you could make a decent "buy low" case on Warren. She probably has a better chance than Sanders of bridging the gap between the left and the party establishment. She's always raised a ton of money. Voters know what she stands for. Women did well in the 2018 primaries.
Not exactly the right analogy, but Warren's path to victory might be something like McCain's in 2008, who was left for dead by pundits at certain early points in the nomination process, but was fundamentally a strong candidate and eventually benefited from a "comeback" narrative.
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🏀 @StephenCurry30 THREE-POINT THREAD 🏀

Looking back at the top three-point moments in Steph's career... we start with #NBA players discussing his quick release during his rookie season!

#WeTheNorth x #DubNation
⏰: 10:30pm/et 📺: ESPN
In the 2012-13 #NBA season, @StephenCurry30 broke Ray Allen's previous record of 269 three-pointers made in a season (2005-06)!

🏀: #WeTheNorth x #DubNation
⏰: 10:30pm/et 📺: ESPN
Two seasons later in 2014-15, @StephenCurry30 knocked down his 273rd three-pointer on April 9th to break his previous #NBA record for most three-pointers made in a season.

He would go on to make 286 total that season.

🏀: #WeTheNorth x #DubNation
⏰: 10:30pm/et 📺: ESPN
Read 8 tweets
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Tomorrow, Virginians decide whether to vote Corey Stewart into the US Senate.

Tomorrow marks 451 days since 8/12/17, the weekend when violent neo-Nazis came to beat & murder people on the streets outside my home.

How is Corey Stewart responsible?

Let me count the ways.

(1/55)
Most of the world is familiar with the scenes of tiki torches, swastikas, and mob beatings from the weekend when white supremacists, neo-Nazis, Klansmen & genocidal bigots of every stripe all teamed up.

But this story starts months before Charlottesville became #Charlottesville.
Six months earlier, an unlikely friendship began between an irrelevant blogger looking for exposure and an underdog candidate trying to make a name for himself. Over months of joint events, Corey Stewart and Jason Kessler cultivated a mutually beneficial alliance. (3/55)
Read 59 tweets
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Ready for a blast from the past? Here, in chronological order, are pictures of various TF2 maps I started years ago, all but one of them unfinished and unreleased:
November 8, 2007. One month after the release of Team Fortress 2, I started working on ctf_coret, an adaptation of the map of the UT99 map of the same name. I made radical changes to the center to support TF2's gameplay. The only screenshot I can find is this, the red flag room:
That screenshot is actually from my submission to a March 2009 TF2Maps "intel room" detailing contest, but as far as I recall, it is entirely unchanged from the last alpha of ctf_coret in December 2007 or January 2008.

Someone else adapted ctf_coret later deviantart.com/aniukha/galler…
Read 32 tweets
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(1) Thread #4: Mass illegal immigration attempts on the US Southern border.

Caravans through Mexico will always be with us, certainly long after 2018 midterms. The current ones are different... the strongest response is needed.

Directory of threads:
(2) The strong response being formed now will reduce size/frequency of future caravan attempts. The eventual #EndCatchAndRelease, #FinishTheWall & other actions by the incoming congress will allow the military deployments to end.

#VoteGOP has never been more necessary.
(3) Essential reading about the caravans:

dhs.gov/news/2018/11/0…
Read 39 tweets
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Tomorrow is the start of the NBA season. Which is great, bc we all love the NBA. It’s also problematic bc I have to steel myself for the onslaught of think pieces & columns by white writers who know nothing abt black culture.
In football & baseball you can get away with discussing culture without having to understand it (although its becoming tougher in the NFL to do that) all that much. In the NBA? Nah, you need to know.
The NBA is a certain kind of black aesthetic. It doesn’t encapsulate the whole of the black experience, but it enough of it to where it’s noticeable. So when ppl opine abt the NBA, it's almost always about black culture. Well, here’s the issue...
Read 22 tweets
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Ready for a thread about how dangerous white men are?
Seen in a comments section, important stuff:

CW murder/rape/assault/drugs
In 2015, white males led all other groups in aggravated assault, larceny-theft, arson, weapons-carrying, and vandalism.
Read 45 tweets

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