Thread for some interesting analysis and possible insights. A very wise friend sent me an email today titled '3x in 5 years'. This was basically a compilation of stocks by various folks from a (very good) Whatsapp group 3 years ago. 14-Oct-2015 to be exact. And he said, derive.
Of course, Whatsapp group recommendations are a bhandaar of biases, self-promotions, tukkas, no relation between recco and own positions etc. and/or combination of many of these. Accounting for this skewness, and also accounting for flaws in comparing stock prices point-to-point
Have a look at these recommendations from some very good investors. They all thought (accounting for the big biases above) that these stocks will deliver a "3x in 5 years". As you can see, many stocks are not even close to achieving that (unless you get a multiplier effect in 2y) 
Just this small historical basic analysis tells you many things (did I mention, this friend was very wise) - 1) 2015 was a period in time where Pharma/Chemicals was widely regarded as 'permanent theme' and hence the quantum of names are disproportionately high in the list
2) The only NBFC mentioned is completely in doldrums 3) If people had positioned their portfolios in a similar manner as their recco(highly unlikely), it's an easy 3 year opportunity cost. Obviously, we are all long term investors with a horizon of 3 months. Most wud have got out
4) What you assume as a easy 3 bagger almost never is - and this is in the biggest bull market over the last 3 years where everybody seems to have made multiples of their capital and 5) Theme based investing works only when it is accompanied by earnings
The key questions to obviously consider, given all this correction & liquidity overhang is 'ab kya' because we are back to square one where I see folks (including me) asking '3x in 5 years' stocks batao. Highly unlikely that it might be from sectors that's on top of people's mind
And the other key insight obviously is, Page Industries...Page Industries hota hai bc :). Vision to see, Courage to hold sab theek hai..but only if its successful. History and historical analysis is humbling, to say the least.
