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during crash of 2008, PSU banks stepped on the gas and heavily increased disbursements to RE. They were bailed out, plain and simple. We can guess who pushed them to do so and why. In the years that followed, NBFCs became an important source of credit. (1/n)
Let's see whether this govt. is any different and whether they finally call an end to the game of hot potato where many RE companies are kept alive on borrowings. Extend and pretend. The NBFCs knew it too but kept playing. When will the common man see lower RE prices? (2/2)
With the pressure on the RBI, looks like we've got the answer to which way the country takes...
Bailout time for cronies lies ahead if they change the RBI gov m.economictimes.com/news/economy/p…
Said this 7 months ago. And we have a bailout trial balloon out today.

business-standard.com/article/financ…
I started this thread in Oct-18. We finally have an NBFC bailout with the associated moral hazard. The first loss guarantee given to PSU banks if they buy assets from stressed NBFCs. Also, talk of the RBI freeing up capital held in Gsecs (beyond SLR + CRR) for lending.
Like the Natraj ad when we were young, "Real estate fir champion". In 2008 and in 2019. Where the mess lies. Where the politicians' wealth lies too. The "too big to fail" asset class in India which continues to be bailed out with taxpayer money.
There...

"Government shall act as the sponsor of the fund and infuse funds up to Rs 10,000 Crore": @nsitharaman in New Delhi

Read: bit.ly/2qw0OU4
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CapOrbit
@CapOrbit
...the SIP closure ratio, which is the number of discontinued SIPs as a % of new SIPs registered, rose to 66% in Aug and Sep.

This meant that for every 3 SIP accounts opened, 2 were discontinued over the last 2 months.
business-standard.com/article/market…
on SIP equity flows :
Aug-19 saw around Rs. 82 bn of SIP and Rs. 7 bn of lumpsum inflows.
Sep-19 saw around Rs. 89 bn of SIP inflows, Rs. 20 bn of lumpsum outflows.

Until when will expensive names be held up? Let's see over the next few months.
Large Cap SIP returns (sorted on 2yr) from Moneycontrol:
Read 5 tweets
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CapOrbit
@CapOrbit
A thread that has some thoughts on gold, USDINR and recessions.
This is the long term chart of gold in USD (XAU/USD in investing.com)
Period considered - from Jan 2007 to date
the same gold in USD series (right axis) with USD-INR (left axis).

Gold is considered as a safe-haven during crises and a store of value when currencies/broad money (M3) is debased continuously by governments, especially more so, after the Bretton Woods era ended in 1971 (2/n)
I was interested in seeing behaviour of gold in USD during the global crisis of 2008. We zoom in to CY08, in the first chart. (same data - XAU and USD-INR)
In the second chart, see the same series but showing % moves through the year.
INR depreciated by 22%. Gold rose 3.5% (3/n)
Read 13 tweets
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CapOrbit
@CapOrbit
Thread:

Got this nice piece in an article. I think the same holds for direct stocks vs. mutual funds.

My view is that anybody who is starting off with equities should not use more than 5 pc of the amount they intend to commit through the direct route. (1/n)
This is assuming that one knows some basics of investing. You should scale up direct stocks over time if you know you are not losing money terribly. Some "tuition fees to market" / losses are understandable. Only when you get better, exposing more money makes sense (2/n)
The rest of the 95pc of money will be working hopefully in the hands of a decent MF manager. For no reason should goals be jeopardized by making losses on a large fraction of investible capital in direct equities when you are not good yet. (3/n)
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GrubStreetJournal
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Rick Petree
@RickPetree
THREAD. It’s too early to have a full understanding of what’s been agreed and what will now happen. My initial reactions:
1. Turkey is a more important strategic ally, regionally, than the Kurds. Emotion can easily obscure that hard reality.
2. From an official Turkish pov, the U.S. attempt to distinguish between the PKK, with which Turkey has been fighting a ‘hot’ war for 20 years, and the YPG, was always infuriating sophistry. Most U.S. policy makers would say the same in private.
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Jonathan Webster 🌹🏴🍞(⧖) [#Residue4Bernie]
@JonathWebst
Bernie is going to be live soon at Plymouth State University, and I need a BERNIE BOOST, so I'm going to be drinking more Kentucky Bourbon and tuning in.

"Power to the People," is playing now. Are you tuning in?

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Diario La Opinión
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Richard James
@RichJamesBits
I have reached a whole new level of #PISSEDOFF.

I didnt think such a #dark and #scary state, or level, could be reached. It may top 12-14-17's causation. It's. That. Bad. So, I've prepared a statement...

docs.google.com/document/d/1_J…

#PascoSheriff #HaveYouAllNoShame @CigarCityBeer
Dear @FBI,
I must implore you ask your colleauges in @FBITampa to help research this new level of #PISSEDOFFNESS. As locals, they may offer a special indepth knowledge of this new level I have reached. This is not fair & law enforcement must #investigate. No one deserves this.
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If #motherfuckers & #tears werent a noticable level.
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Dr. Gabriela Bailas
@bibibailas
#FísicaThreadBr [Sou uma Física INVEJOSA?] Hoje vim falar sobre a inveja na Graduação. Pelo menos eu senti isso mais forte durante a minha. #CiênciaBr #ciencianobr
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