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Steve Analyst @EmporersNewC
, 11 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1. Of particular significance is the way @Econs4FreeTrade have written about the option where the UK does trade deals with the rest of the world, but do not conclude a deal with the European Union.
2. In it they argue that it would have a negative effect on the EU but not on the UK…
3. Going on to seemingly argue that we would gain from no deal.
4. But interestingly, when they were invited by the Australian government to make a submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, their report didn't quite say that.
5. They argued this was “complicated”, and the gains would not be seen for “some considerable time”.
6. They also say it would raise prices on a “swathe of our imports”, reduce their predicted gains by half even if they concluded a trade deal with the rest of the world, and that criticism, and a desire to return to the Single Market, would be “much in evidence”.
7. That all of this would cause "uncertainty", and the UK effectively becomes a "tariff-setting sovereign".
8. Yet it’s these same uncertainties in the latest report that they dismiss, while criticising the “pro-Remain media” for trumpeting them.
9. Now, I have no personal reason to believe this is just an omission from some honest economists who are objectively trying to model the future economics of Brexit.
10. This change of position could have come as a result of an adherence to the sort of poor modelling practice that yields unreliable results.
11. As an analyst, there is insufficient evidence to suggest otherwise and motivation is a very easy thing to assume, but an incredibly hard thing to prove.

All I know for definite is there is a discrepancy here.

/End
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