Good one, will share my thoughts based on 15 plus years in RE business:
@TraderEQFX @Wealth_Park @valueshadow @rohitchauhan
@TraderEQFX @Wealth_Park @valueshadow @rohitchauhan
1) RE is not dead (as some think), it will continue to be there in future in one form or another. Yes, developers will consolidate, business model will change/evolve.
2) Masses are not "value investors". ppl still want to own homes and invest in something where they can touch/feel. Masses are still not comfortable putting big chunk in equity markets regardless of RE returns.
3) Yes, SIPs/MFs will continue to grow but ppl are happy with "apna ghar" and an investment that produces monthly income or some appreciation (doesn't have to be inflation beating).
4) General populace feels proud in showing off their assets whether 5 lacs of a bai home or a 10 Cr mansion. Having own home or 2nd home is a big achievement for most. India is still young and many still wanting to own a home or 2nd home.
5) RE has already been in distress since many years now. It always feels like end of the world but good developers are selling even though at very slow pace. Recovery is bound to happen (thought can be slow and longer), there have been less sanctions since demon/RERA.
6) I think of Ajay Piramal and Khushru Jijina more like Buffett..they're nice but shrewd as well. To me, if the pain continues further..it might be good for them in long term where they can overtake projects/assets at much cheaper value.
7) Anand Piramal had all different business options but he chose to be in realty. Of course they all can be wrong (including Ajay) but I think chances are they will come out stronger and perhaps more profitable in long run. Lending/Credit is not dead either.
8) Any macro whether high crude, stronger $, elections, interest rates, liquidity etc..all will change one day 😀. I 'll keep adding.. knowing my portfolio can correct another 20-40%.
9) History keeps repeating..such opportunities don't come often. As long as we have enough cash or income from other (non equity) sources for short-medium term needs..we're good!! Keep learning/honing..it's always Day One 😀 whether for business or School of Learning.
10) These RE developers are not Mallya or Choksi, they want to continue to be in business..in India and will use all means to pay off debt and hold onto the security/project. Final settlement includes penalties/interest etc. Yes, few qtrs/years of pain but can be profitable.
11) I have shared this in all humility. Have personally found recent RE distress/defaults to be profitable..though very difficult to deal with. Investing is not just about numbers..many factors at play. Luck/Karma/destiny.
@unseenvalue
@unseenvalue
@unseenvalue 12) Time will tell the fate of these lenders/developers/businesses. Success/failures...part of life. This is the reason one should have diversified portfolio and enough cash/income to have sound sleep. 😄
