Thread by @TheJeffGoldman

I’ve been RTing a lot of predictions for the election in two days. But I haven’t offered my own prediction. Mostly because I don’t do predictions. I don’t pretend to know the future. But I am pretty good at understanding strategies, and how those impact the future.

So, here is my prediction on this election:

Unlike those who feel this is the most important mid-term election of our lifetime, I don’t think this midterm is that much more important than any other election. And I feel that way for the same reason most say this is so important:

Trump.

I have come to understand his political strategies through a sales/marketing filter. We all know that Trump spent most of his life as a master salesman/marketer/negotiator. If you look at the possible results of this election as a marketer, all you see is opportunity,

regardless of the outcome. Here’s why:

Let’s start with what we know. The Rs will probably keep the Senate, expanding their lead. BUT, even if Election Day is a complete disaster for the Rs, the Ds will not have anything close to a supermajority.

That alone means ...

The House can do whatever it wants. The Ds will never have the numbers to remove Trump, and that is the ONLY thing that could stop Trump.

And as long as Trump can’t be removed, Trump will win regardless of the Congress. Here’s how:

SCENARIO 1: The Rs keep the House and the Senate, possibly even growing their numbers in the Senate.

If this happens, the Rs in the House and Senate will be far more Trumpian than they have been. Between the House and Senate we are losing 40+ never-Trumpers.

Some will admittedly be replaced by Ds. But others will be replaced by pro-Trumpers. And in the act of keeping the House and Senate we make all of those pro-Trumpers stronger, and all of the never-Trumpers weaker.

In this scenario, Trump spends the next 2 years

speeding his agenda through Congress. More judges, more tax cuts, probably an actual market-based repeal-and-replace to the ACA, a possible new government in Iran, a quiet N Korea, more growth, good times for all, and an electorate brimming with peace and prosperity.

Meanwhile, on the left, the civil war begins between the far left and the moderate left (yes, there is a huge difference, don’t @ me on this). That war is fought hardest during a brutal primary season, those who want to tack to the middle vs those who demand going farther left.

The Democrat party devolves into even more of a dumpster fire, it’s 1968 all over again. American voters are repulsed and by December 2020 even the Democrats realize they’ve made mistakes in front of the voters that will take a generation to fix.

So Trump wins. Not only in 2020, but he can pretty much hand-pick his successor in 2024 like Reagan did (even though he didn’t care for Bush, if rumors are true, but still, Bush was Reagan’s third term). So the Trump Revolution gets at least 12 years in the White House.

SCENARIO 2: The Democrats take the House on Tuesday.

This completely disrupts the Trump agenda, right? Wrong. Did the Rs taking Congress completely stop Obama’s last six years? Of course not. Obama still had a pen and a phone.

Trump has made it clear he’s happy to use the methods of his predecessor. And I expect Trump will be at least as successful using those methods as Obama was.

Will judges in lower courts do whatever they can to stop each of Trump’s executive orders?

Of course they will. But why was the left so upset with the Supreme Court having 5 (supposedly) conservative Justices for the first time in our lifetimes? Part of that is their ability to very publicly slapping down judicial overreach.

You don’t need a crystal ball to predict all of that happening within the judicial branch.

Now, you might say “but executive orders are only temporary,” I say the same thing Obama said: they’re not temporary if you expect to have Congress/the White House beyond your term.

Now, if Trump’s agenda is so unsuccessful that, like Obama’s was, he finds himself being voted out and replaced by the opposite party, then yes, his EOs will be temporary. But that’s probably not going to happen because of:

The Democrats!

Because if the Democrats do find themselves in charge of the House, or even if they are in charge of the Senate too, they are going to have to make some complicated choices.

It’s easy to #resist when you’re not in charge of anything.

When you’re not in charge, you are free to yell, pout, break stuff and blow your nose on the drapes. Once you’re in charge, you actually have something to lose. If you can’t message to voters that you’ve produced something with your power, you tend to lose that power quickly.

The Democrats’ quandary: their must fervent supporters will demand the Democrats break stuff. They will demand all power be used to #resist.

And that plays right into Trump’s hands.

Because most voters are repulsed by constant accusations and investigations.

And the Democrats will be torn between their donors and their grassroots who want them to resist and the voters in the middle who want them to act like adults to get things done for America.

Whichever their ultimate choice, Trump wins.

If the Democrats choose to help the President enact some of his agenda, he wins going into 2020. And he proves himself able to work with the other side of the aisle.

If the Ds choose to #resist, the President is given the gift of a bunch of sitting ducks to beat on every day to complain about everything wrong. If you think his Twitter feed is on fire now, just wait until he has a Dem Congress to beat up on.

A poor quarter of growth? It’s the Dem Congress’s fault.

Unemployment ticks up? It’s the Dem Congress’s fault.

Issues at the border? It’s the Dem Congress’s fault.

Crime problem? It’s the Dem Congress’s fault.

It doesn’t matter whether a Dem Congress chooses to comply or resist. If Trump plays it right strategically (and I believe he will, because regardless of what you think of him, you must agree he knows how to message and market himself) then Trump wins.

That’s why I believe that this election is no more or less important than any other election.

No matter how it plays out, Trump wins.

So feel free to sleep well over the next two nights. It’s all going to be good.