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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
My prediction is that the S&P 500 will close yesterday at 2,545.94. Predicting what already happened is quite popular now, so I couldn't resist. The best way to generate click bait is to create a time frame of less than one month!
"I think it’s highly likely that the people who confidently think they know the consequences – none of whom predicted this – now they know what’s going to happen next? Again, the witch doctors." Charlie Munger
"People have always had this craving to have someone tell them the future. Long ago, kings would hire people to read sheep guts. There's always been a market for people who pretend to know the future. Listening to today's forecasters is just as crazy as looking at sheep guts." CM
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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THREAD: Reasons not to panic about the sharemarket.

This may not be a popular topic but it’s important. With the sharemarket in free fall we’re all worried about what this means.
Let’s put politics aside and examine where we’re at.

I’ll put sources at the bottom so as not to interrupt the flow.
I’m not an economist, however I’ve worked in the financial services industry as a writer for many years and have qualifications in *general* financial advice. This means I cannot provide personalised advice but I can state general principles of investing.
Read 16 tweets
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$CRON ww $11.15-35
$NBEV ww $6.55-65 breakout attempt.

Not sure today is the day for either one, time with $QQQ
$CRON $11 puts at $11.15
$NBEV ah close update from our short over $6.75 just for fun, all or nothing.
Read 15 tweets
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Vowing to protect U.S. industry from overseas competitors, Congress passed the Tariff Act of 1930, better known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. The measure imposed near-record tax rates on a wide range of imported goods. Trade partners retaliated..
*TRUMP DEPRESSION on its WAY!*
by imposing tariffs on U.S.-made goods. As a result, world trade fell by two-thirds between 1929 and 1934. The GREAT DEPRESSION is often associated with the stock market crash on BLACK TUESDAY 1929, but was the culmination of many factors. The public debt was 16% of GDP- 104%NOW
The GREAT TRUMP DEPRESSION will be CAUSED BY RICH, FOOLISH, SELFISH, IGNORANT, SELF AGGRANDIZING BULLIES of
ALLIES
THE PEOPLE
TRADE PARTNERS
THE POOR
DISABLED
SICK
UNEDUCATED
MARGINALIZED
UNEMPLOYED
PREEXISTING CONDITIONS
PPL w/o HEALTHCARE
PPL w/o HEALTH INSURANCE
VETERANS
Read 25 tweets
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I have just spent a week with a man I have met over 35 years ago, who is today a Trump supporter.

He & I were like brothers back then. We went on a short trip together & talked about America.

It was fascinating, I'll write a few highlights of our conversation below.
#resist
The first thing he asked me was whether or not I like Trump.

I wasn't interested in a pointless confrontation, so I instead returned the question to him.

He said he doed. I asked him why and he told me about his achievements. And THAT is when it got interesting. 2/?
#resist
He wasn't stating numbers/actions. He said things such as "jobs are back, America is safer, the economy is good, no more terrorism, no more illegal immgrants."

I could've debated him. But he was an opportunity for me to have non defensive responses to any questions. 3/?
#resist
Read 14 tweets
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UNFAITHFUL SHEPHERDS

"Many years ago, the then president of The National Council of Churches warned that the danger of the great religious awakening taking place in our country, might become fanatical and be carried into our political and business life!
"Perhaps this was a fair assessment, that is, if you conflate #Christian #Zionism with religious awakening. Unfortunately, these "fanatical" #Evangelicals have 0 faith in the #Christian religion to which they give empty lip service--while paying homage to those who hate #Christ.
"For lack of faith in the actual #Bible, #Evangelicals make Scofield’ Notes, (Scofield! A drunkard and a con-man allied with the Satanist, Darby) --#Evangelicals have turned Scofield’s NOTES into a DIABOLICAL FORCE in our #national life.
Read 177 tweets
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I’ve received reports today saying DeVos, Huntsman, Ross, Sessions, Tillerson & Zinke are resigning for ties to Russia &/or for corruption.
My guess is it’s either true-or it’s a way for them to distract from the disastrous policies-a Trumpian thing to do. They all SHOULD resign.
DeVos, Huntsman, Ross & Tillerson have financial interests in Russia. If that alone doesn’t lead to a resignation, nothing will. #Resist
Read 8 tweets

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