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Matthew Chapman @fawfulfan
, 9 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Let's not talk about 2020 yet. Let's talk about 2019.

There are some important elections coming up next year: #KYGov, #LAGov, #MSGov, and the state legislatures of VA and NJ.
#MSGov is almost certainly going to favor Republicans, but don't count Democrats out.

The seat is open, and we have a potential candidate, AG Jim Hood, who has already won statewide office there.
#LAGov will be a challenge. We won that seat in 2015 because Republicans nominated basically the most unpopular politician in the state.

They won't make that mistake again. Bel Edwards is in for a fight.
That brings us to #KYGov.

One-term Republican Matt Bevin is going into next year as the least popular governor in the United States, with -25 disapproval. (Fallin, Malloy and Rauner have worse ratings, but Fallin and Malloy are retiring and Rauner just lost his election).
While KY is a very red state, Bevin made enemies by skullfucking Medicaid expansion and going to war with teachers and public pensions.

KY Dems also have a good bench. Andy Beshear and Alison Grimes are both capable of winning statewide. Attica Scott has also flirted w/ running.
So yeah, Kentucky should be our top target. We should go scorched-earth against Bevin, and we can win it.

Now, onto the legislative races.
NJ legislature is probably not going to be exciting. We already dominate there and it's gerrymandered for Democrats.

I mean, if you're there, get involved. If not, I don't see much point in spending political capital on it.
The real showdown is going to be the VA legislature. House and Senate both up, and GOP controls both by only 1 vote.

Here's the wildcard: the VA legislature is illegally gerrymandered, and a federal judge has appointed a special master to redraw the map. Which could help Dems.
Here's my top-level assessment of the big races, one year out.

#KYGov: Toss-Up
#LAGov: Lean R
#MSGov: Likely R
NJ Senate: Safe D
NJ Assembly: Safe D
VA Senate: Toss-Up
VA House: Toss-Up

Let's get to work.
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