For comparison, the House popular vote in things that are widely considered to be wave elections:
2010: R +6.8
2006: D +8.0
1994: R +7.1
So if we wind up at ~D +7.5 or so, we'll be pretty much exactly in line with those years.
2010: R +6.8
2006: D +8.0
1994: R +7.1
So if we wind up at ~D +7.5 or so, we'll be pretty much exactly in line with those years.
There *is* one difference between 2018 and 2010, though, which is that the swing from 2008 (D +10.6) to 2010 (R+ 6.8) was enormous because 2008 had been a very blue year. This year's swing only about half as large, because Rs had a middling 2016 (R +1.1 popular vote; lost seats).
Here's one last way to look at it.
In the first two years with Obama as party leader, Republicans gained a net of +43 House seats (-21 2008, +1 special elections, +63 2010)
In the first two years with Trump, Dems are on pace for +45 (+6 2016, +1 special elections, +38 2018).
In the first two years with Obama as party leader, Republicans gained a net of +43 House seats (-21 2008, +1 special elections, +63 2010)
In the first two years with Trump, Dems are on pace for +45 (+6 2016, +1 special elections, +38 2018).
