, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. Trump is in a considerably weaker position than many people realize. If he loses any support from Republicans, his presidency could easily enter the sort of vicious spiral that Bush's did in 2006-8 or, perhaps more relevantly, Nixon's did in 1973-4. nytimes.com/2019/01/06/opi…
2. Let's start with the numbers. At Trump's current approval rating (about 40%), the GOP was trounced in the midterms. It lost the House popular vote by almost 9 percentage points.

By comparison, no presidential race has been so lopsided since Reagan '84.
3. This is a problem for Senate Republicans, especially those running in 2020. Remember: presidential-year turnout tends to help Democrats. Turnout in 2020 is likely to be at least 10 million votes higher in 2020 than it was in 2018.
4. Several GOP senators running in 2020 will be doing so in states that just went for the Democrats in the House popular vote, as this chart shows. nytimes.com/2019/01/06/opi…
5. The GOP remains with Trump, for now. But it's not guaranteed to remain so. Trump is already weak. Add a government shutdown, a barely loyal staff, Mueller's investigation and the Democrats' newfound subpoena power -- and the next few months are treacherous for him. [fin]
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to David Leonhardt
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!