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David Leonhardt
@DLeonhardt
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. Trump is in a considerably weaker position than many people realize. If he loses any support from Republicans, his presidency could easily enter the sort of vicious spiral that Bush's did in 2006-8 or, perhaps more relevantly, Nixon's did in 1973-4. nytimes.com/2019/01/06/opi…
2. Let's start with the numbers. At Trump's current approval rating (about 40%), the GOP was trounced in the midterms. It lost the House popular vote by almost 9 percentage points.

By comparison, no presidential race has been so lopsided since Reagan '84.
3. This is a problem for Senate Republicans, especially those running in 2020. Remember: presidential-year turnout tends to help Democrats. Turnout in 2020 is likely to be at least 10 million votes higher in 2020 than it was in 2018.
4. Several GOP senators running in 2020 will be doing so in states that just went for the Democrats in the House popular vote, as this chart shows. nytimes.com/2019/01/06/opi…
5. The GOP remains with Trump, for now. But it's not guaranteed to remain so. Trump is already weak. Add a government shutdown, a barely loyal staff, Mueller's investigation and the Democrats' newfound subpoena power -- and the next few months are treacherous for him. [fin]
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More from @DLeonhardt see all

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David Leonhardt
@DLeonhardt
1. The unrelenting chaos that President Trump creates can sometimes obscure the big picture. But the big picture is simple: The United States has never had a president as demonstrably unfit for the office. nytimes.com/2019/01/05/opi…
2. Trump's high crimes and misdemeanors can be separated into four categories. And this list is conservative. It does not include the possibility that his campaign coordinated strategy with Russia, nor his lazy approach to the job, like his refusal to read briefing books.
3. This list instead focuses on demonstrable ways that Trump has broken the law or violated his oath.

ONE: Trump has used the presidency for personal enrichment.
TWO: He has violated campaign finance law.
THREE: He has obstructed justice.
FOUR: He has subverted democracy.
Read 5 tweets
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David Leonhardt
@DLeonhardt
What's happening in Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina is extremely dangerous: One political party is attempting to undermine election results by stripping powers from the winning candidates, solely because those candidates are from the other party... nytimes.com/2018/12/09/opi…
... In all three states, the power grab is made possible by gerrymandering. Republican legislators hold a strong majority in Wisconsin, for example -- without even having won the popular vote. These victors-by-gerrymandering are now stripping power from other elected officials...
... And it's important to note that Donald Trump isn't the cause of any of this. Other, less blatantly corrupt politicians are, as @jonathanchait points out: nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Read 5 tweets
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David Leonhardt
@DLeonhardt
A couple of thoughtful critiques of my column on capitalism not working -->

(1/x)
I do think this argument misses something, though. Without question, corporate executives and politicians were responding to the threat and power of organized labor. They weren't raising wages merely out of the goodness of their hearts. But it's also the case that ...
... organized labor, along with a fear of fascism/communism, actually changed executives' minds. Not every wage increase or acceptance of regulation came in direct response to a threat or action from labor. Many -- not all, but many -- executives really did ...
Read 5 tweets

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Who funds the IEA, the TPA, the ASI &co?
You know, the RW 'free trade' thick tanks advocating tax havens, "freedom" (no regulations like workers' rights or environmental protection), no welfare (no tax & no free healthcare).
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@JonathanPKatz
1) *puts on amateur food historian hat*
Listen up kids. So when #Trump wants to replace #SNAP benefits with a box of prepackaged dry goods, it’s not just about #fruits and #veggies. It’s about power, race, ethnicity, labor, energy, disability, and language as well.
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Zach Everson
@Z_Everson
Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

bit.ly/2EPCSy1
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bit.ly/2CpL7z2
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