Thread by @uk_domain_names

A fresh look at the Withdrawal Agreement tells me the really, really vital bits that are going to be of enormous consequence are right at the beginning. Before you get lost in the trees of the detail, it's vital to focus on the forest at the start.
ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…

P.3: "RECALLING that, pursuant to Article 50 TEU, in conjunction with Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty, and subject to the arrangements laid down in this Agreement, the law of the Union and of Euratom in its entirety ceases to

apply to the United Kingdom from the date of entry into force of this Agreement,"

That backs up what A50 says: we are out of ALL treaties, international arrangements etc. on Brexit Day. Not after transition. Not after we exit the backstop. Brexit Day.

What that means is that life goes on as normalish from that point on only by the exclusive good graces of the EU. We've lost all the treaties and their benefits. We just haven't noticed it yet by virtue of the incredibly dense legalese of the first paragraph on p.4.

see that huge long section within the two dashes, beginning "- notwithstanding all consequences..." and ending "in relation to the United Kingdom's membership of the Union"? That doubles down on the wording of p.3 to remind the UK that we're OUT out on Brexit Day.

The bit after it says that we should continue to experience the benefits of the treaties and trade agreements we're no longer party to, and "as a general rule" they should have the same effect. Now, IANAL (I'm sure plenty of people reading this may be) but I took "as a general

rule" to have 2 meanings.

It could simply mean "take it as read for the rest of the document that..."

or

It could mean "in broad part, most of the time"

That distinction is absolutely key. If it has the second meaning, what that whole thing boils down is a massive disclaimer

on the part of the EU, who are essentially saying "yeah, we think stuff will keep going as per now, but you agree that you're out of all the arrangements so if things break you can't crying to us."

If my second interpretation is correct, we're in do-do up to our necks. Because it means any agreement that a third party country isn't willing to roll over for us will cease to apply.

If my first interpretation is correct, then transition should feel a lot like the current

situation, but we will be like Wile E. Coyote going over the edge of a cliff in pursuit of Road Runner: our legs are paddling so fast, we're managing to stay in position in mid-air. But just as in the cartoon, that only works for so long. Then gravity reasserts itself and we

plummet. In this case, gravity is largely under the control of the EU.

So, regardless of whether the W.A. offers the lesser evil or the greater evil (I'm hoping lawyers will jump in on that one) we will still be enormously weakened when it comes to negotiating our future

arrangement with the EU, because we're starting with nothing. The two paragraphs I highlighted have seen to that. And we will already have agreed to pay the £39 billion, because that's an integral part of the W.A. so we don't even have the despicable leverage of threatening to

withhold what we owe.

So if you think the current deal is bad, wait until you see the future one we have to hammer out during transition. The EU have us over a barrel (and rightly so - this was telegraphed in letters a mile high in A50) and we will have willingly laid

ourselves across it, snuggling against the rough curved wood.

There is an alternative, as Theresa May herself acknowledged for the first time last night when she ended her list of possible outcomes of the next few months with "or no Brexit at all".

Makes you think, right?

While you're digesting all that, and the politicians bicker, it's worth thinking about the companies shifting jobs and production, investments drying up, assets being redomiciled, etc. going on *right now* because of Brexit. TL/DR: it ain't pretty...

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