Thread by @Usherwood

Some thoughts about why the WA text isn't as dead as some might think:

1/

Let's start with the obvious point: the WA is an actually-existing text already agreed in principle

2/

This matters because there is no other version of the WA out there, so in a world of potentials and could-bes, this is actually A Thing (which counts for more than one might think)

3/

Moreover, the path for approval is relatively clear compared to the alternatives.

4/

yes, there are some Qs about what Parliament can do, but that's might less problematic than Qs of renegotiation, abandoning the WA or revocation

5/

Third point is that while the WA is getting shit from all sides in the UK, it's getting shit from all sides: ie mvt to address any one group's problems will just increase others' unhappiness

6/

That's largely why it's how it is: it's a compromise that May thinks can get through, based on everyone having to take a hit on their preferences

7/

Importantly, that might work because there's not a clearly preferred alternative position that rivals the WA for weight.

If there was a majority for alternative X in Parliament, then it'd be a different matter

8/

But there isn't, either for revocation, major renegotiation of any flavour or walking-away

Hence a path is open for May to claim that "you might not like it, but neither do they, and voting it down means they win"

9/

Last point I'll pick up on here is that quite a lot of what was said yesterday wasn't strictly about the WA

10/

As I've said more times than i care to mention, the WA is very largely about ending UK membership of the EU, NOT setting up the future relationship

11/

In any path with a negotiated outcome (ie not walking-away), you still have to have the WA, because the issues will still be the same

12/

Yes, the Pol Dec does talk about plans, but it's not binding, so May might suggest that accepting the WA is a necessary step to getting to the point where new choices about the future (which is where a lot of criticism came) can be made

13/

Of course, in so doing, May raises the likelihood of inviting her removal come Brexit day, but she'll have done her duty of getting the UK out of the EU, so she might not be so resistant to moving on

14/

But the point is that supporting the WA leaves more options open than any of the others, because it keeps the show on the road, avoids major problems w EU relations right now and because it's easier than having to actually make an alternative happen

15/

Of course, I might be wrong (as I've been wrong before): I guess we'll see soon enough

/end