Thread by @Usherwood

Right, a bit early for this sort of thing, but let's try to gather ourselves as 2019 kicks off with an update on what been happening in Brexit-land over the break:

1/

You'll recall that pre-Xmas the talk was all about UK ratification of the Withdrawal Agt and May's huge problems therewith

2/

You'll also recall that a major issue was with the time: to wit, there isn't much

May's gambit in delaying the Meaningful Vote seemed only to make sense in pushing the rhetoric of her deal or no-deal: vote late, so there's no time for alternatives

3/

Well, you'll be shocked to hear that all this is still the case, just with a couple of weeks' less time

4/

There's been no substantive change in any of this since everyone broke for Xmas:

May's policy is unchanged (and as her NYE message suggests, will unchange)
The EU hasn't given any new language on the backstop (and won't)
And LAB still haven't moved position

5/

This last is perhaps the most uncertain right now, as @ProfTimBale research shows

theguardian.com/politics/2019/…

6/

With clear majorities of LAB members both supporting a 2nd ref'm and a Remain vote, Corbyn will find the next couple of weeks almost as tricky as May, as PLP try to move him round to a formal policy shift

7/

I'm doubtful they'll succeed though, as Corbyn's political reputation rests on his 'authentic' expression of what he thinks, and he clearly thinks the UK should leave the EU

8/

Even if private polling of Momentum members shows same pattern as LAB as whole, it'll be very much against type to see such an explicit shift, not least as it'll give May more ammo to say he's flip-flopping

9/

If LAB change is uncertain, then bigger elephant in the room will be public opinion and its impact

That LAB polling suggests we might see further general shifts in support of a 2nd referendum, which might shape Westminster debate

10/

That said, if Corbyn's not moving, then it's a Q of whether May comes to see that route as being of any value to her

And that's hugely unlikely

11/

For May, another ref means huge uncertainty of outcome, plus the re-activation of Remain as an outcome, which is much more of a threat to her deal than no-deal

12/

So I think pulling that cord will be a matter of absolute last resort for May

(remember, there have been instances of her changing her mind before, but only when given no choice about it at all, which looks unlikely here)

13/

The final point from Xmas to muse on is no-deal prep

14/

If you missed it, then you might read up on the small-yet-major case of emergency ferries, which may or may not exist: bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

15/

As I and others stressed all through last year, a fundamental part of contingency planning is that you have to be aware of what you can do yourself and what you rely on others to do for you

16/

That means the UK gvt not only has to think about how/whether the EU will get the UK out of various no-deal holes with emergency deals, but also about how/whether the entire British economy is ready to address these too

17/

The retreat of the state since the 1980s means there are huge areas of public life where the gvt contracts out to others on the provision of services and economic activity

That's not intrinsically bad, but it makes readying for no-deal very much harder

18/

The ferry instance highlights all this quite neatly, but also points to the likely lack of comprehensive no-deal readiness by 29 March

19/

Since I'm a fully-signed-up member of the "cock-up, not conspiracy" club, I don't think that's intentional or designed to make no-deal look even less attractive to MPs: 2018 saw a resolute mvt among the latter away from no-deal all by itself

20/

However, the framing doesn't hurt May: no one can accuse her for hiding away RO-RO ferries just to sell her deal, or of using Grayling as an agent provocateur

[checks internet. rolls eyes]

21/

To pull all this together, it's like May says all the time: "nothing has changed"

And that's still a problem

22/

Since you'll ask whats going to happen, my best guess remains that the MV is lost the week after next, Parliament has a bit of a flat spin, then comes back to May's deal as the least-worst option on the table, then signs up to it

23/

No-one will be happy about it, plus more CON MPs will have clocked that it doesn't bind the path of the future relationship, so they'll be getting ready for another big tussle about that in April, as they remove May

24/

Of course, my word counts for nothing in all this, so don't go placing bets on it or anything

The one thing I am sure about is that however it plays out, the underlying problem will remain: there's no consensus about why any of this is happening

25/

Unless and until that happens, we'll be falling from one crisis to another

And that it's not happened in the past 2.5 yrs suggests it'll not happen soon

26/

Onwards, then, to 2019, which is going to be an absolute horror-show for all concerned.

/end