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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Seeing a lot of people tweet about this piece and it's definitely interesting and well-written and worth reading but... to be honest, I'm not sure I buy the premise that being named the best burger in America in 2017 is what killed this restaurant. thrillist.com/eat/portland/s…
I say that because if you look at the Yelp reviews, it's clear that this restaurant was having problems *for years*. Was averaging about a 3-star review throughout 2014, for instance, which is really bad by Yelp standards over a sustained period. bit.ly/2DJ3F1v
Moreover, the pre-2017 reviews describe exactly the same problems (slow and surly service, dirty) that the author is worried was caused by the restaurant's newfound popularity. The baseline probability of a restaurant like that closing has to be quite high.
So looks like this story had bigger problems than ignoring bad Yelp reviews. Great reporting from Willamette Week. wweek.com/news/2018/11/2…
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Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
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Not sure this is a fight worth getting into but FWIW, as someone who knows a relatively large amount about New York restaurants, this claim—that the restaurant where AOC worked was put out of business by a minimum wage hike—is dubious at best.
The restaurant, Coffee Shop, was closed mostly it occupied a lot of square footage and because rents are very high in Union Square, where it's located. A ton of restaurants in that area, including the iconic Union Square Cafe, have recently closed or relocated.
The owner did cite the minimum wage as one of a "combination of factors", but also said most of his employees were already making above the NYC minimum wage. Also, the concept was pretty dated, and the restaurant was poorly reviewed on Yelp, etc. fxn.ws/2F8ds1T
Read 4 tweets
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My basic view on Warren's chances is bearish. For whatever reason (she's seen as old news? the DNA test? sexism/she reminds voters of Hillary?) her polling has been quite poor especially given her high name recognition. Her margins of victory in MA also have also not been great.
BUT you could make a decent "buy low" case on Warren. She probably has a better chance than Sanders of bridging the gap between the left and the party establishment. She's always raised a ton of money. Voters know what she stands for. Women did well in the 2018 primaries.
Not exactly the right analogy, but Warren's path to victory might be something like McCain's in 2008, who was left for dead by pundits at certain early points in the nomination process, but was fundamentally a strong candidate and eventually benefited from a "comeback" narrative.
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Ok I just experienced the nicest exchange with a stranger and think it’ll help to share: I was playing on the Mariah Carey slots in Vegas (naturally) and a friendly circa-mid-40s ish guy sat down to play on the machine next to me
I was sitting with @marcoalessifilm, both wearing pink (naturally) and after chatting a little to the guy about Vegas, he nervously asked if he could ask us a question. I knew where this was gonna go as it always does so did a bit of an inner eye roll but indulged him anyway
He then asked if we were together so we said no (we’re best friends and he has a fab bf) and he asked if we were gay, so we said yes. He then said he thinks his 13 year old son might be gay and wondered if he could ask us how best for him to navigate that
Read 25 tweets
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1) I've been thinking about this all morning. Time for some speculation.

It's regarding Tucker Carlson. I think the "secret hand" wants him gone. #QAnon
2) First, some lead up into why I sense this is going on.

There were 2 triggers. First was the recent George Papadopoulos interview. It was an important interview, it dealt with Mifsud. I think it was squashed by the network. #QAnon

Here it is:

3) Notice Tucker says "I wish we have an hour to talk, but we have about 45 seconds" -Tucker was not happy. I don't recall him being on again since. #QAnon
Read 14 tweets
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Seeing a lot of people tossing around the FBI DIOG’s requirement that factual claims in FISA applications be “verified.” It’s important to understand what this means. It does NOT mean “you can’t use information provided by a single source without independent confirmation."
“FISA Verification” is a process delineated in the so-called Woods Procedures; it refers to a records check to confirm that representations in the FISA application accurately reflect information in FBI’s own databases. fas.org/irp/agency/doj…
You can certainly argue that’s substantively inadequate. But formally, each of the applications released this weekend has a “Verification” form attesting under penalty of perjury that it went through the Woods process.
Read 5 tweets
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Interesting thread. It's good to see these ideas expressed in such a clear and provocative way, because a lot of people believe them, and they are wrong in an interesting way. THREAD 👇🏻 (post 1 of "until my beer gets cold")
First, what is by now a chestnut "deep learning is great engineering but no science." This is (a) wrong, and (b) contains a fundamental misunderstanding, common in computer science, about what engineering is.
(a) Sure, no theoretical consensus on why deep learning methods work. But the important part was: Before they started working, it seemed clear that they shouldn't. Far too many parameters, not enough control of overfitting. Poor Mr L2 regularization can do only so much.
Read 10 tweets
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Seeing a lot more people writing about toxic masculinity and media which is great. Though I do feel like many are missing the deeper understanding of how patriarchy operates as a social system. I’d recommend The Will to Change by bell hooks as an easy-to-read introduction.
“Toxic masculinity” doesn’t just refer to the worst or most obvious misogyny. The term is shorthand for a wide range of harmful or destructive behaviors (both overt and subtle) that are socially accepted and enforced. This means most men have participated in toxic masculinity.
There’s a tendency to want to distance ourselves from overt misogynists in order to feel better. But it’s not enough to point to the worst offenders and say “See I’m not like him so I’m good!” We’re all participants in the social systems that give rise to those worst offenders.
Read 7 tweets
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Seeing a lot of people giving @SenSchumer love for voting against the CR tonight over #DreamActNow. Let’s clear something up: He may have *personally* voted against the CR tonight, but he is most responsible for it tonight. Here’s why: 1/
He’s the Dem Leader — his most important job is to keep Democrats together, especially on tough votes. He deserves a lot of credit for keeping Dems together on healthcare and taxes (made possible by grassroots opposition) 2
He decided tonight that he wanted the CR to pass, and then manufactured it. Republicans needed 9 Democratic votes in the Senate and they got 18. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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