Today is #USS's annual 'Institutions Meeting'. This is the first time I've been (I'm invited as a member of the Joint Negotiating Committee), but my understanding is that it's a way for USS to woo representatives from employers with presentations, food, nibbles and drinks. 1/
We *may* get a sneak preview of a 2018 valuation in one of the morning sessions: videos I've seen from previous years have included stuff relating to scheme funding. If so, it's likely to be confidential until the Technical Provisions consultation launches in a week or two. 2/
What might a 2018 valuation show? That depends on the input assumptions, but if the JEP recommendations are followed in full and applied to 2018 data I don't think we'd be far off #NoDeficit and #NoDetriment, even if Test 1 remains unamended. 3/
The worry, as expressed very nicely by @MikeOtsuka in his thread below, is that public statements from the #USS executive, and Bill Galvin in particular, have indicated some resistance to accepting what the JEP have said. 4/
Of course, @UCU and @UniversitiesUK have, between them, nominated over half of the trustee board representatives, so one would assume that both sides' public support for the JEP proposals would make it likely that the board would also be on side. 5/
But it's hard to shake off the feeling that too many decisions are being made by the in-house team on the board's behalf, possibly as recommendations in need of a rubber stamping. @FirstActuarial's recent report for @UCU raised this worry in a big way. 6/
The trustees of the scheme should be present at today's event, and we should hear an address from the chair of the trustees, David Eastwood. There may be opportunities later in the day for further discussions. 7/
But with the consultation on a 2018 valuation expected to launch this side of Christmas, next week's meeting of the Joint Negotiating Committee (12 December) followed by the board's meeting on the 13th could be crucial to determining the future of the dispute. 8/8
PS A couple of tweets about what went down.
PPS And some more here.
