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Michael Smart @michaelgsmart
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
excuse me? ...
Here is my paper estimating how Equalization increased provincial tax rates since 1972. Cutting Equalization in half would cause tax rates to fall about 7 percentage points on average in receiving provs…

Gated: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
Ungated: econstor.eu/bitstream/1041…
See that paper for a literature review on how equalization has been found to increase tax rates in numerous other studies for Canada and other countries…
Here is the original 1973 paper written by the great Tom Courchene on how Equalization can impede economic development (different mechanism than in my paper, but the same idea)

jstor.org/stable/134086
Excuse me? … Quebec’s general corporate tax rate is the highest of the big 5 provinces. It’s been rising since the late 1980s…

But that’s all from me. Please go back to explaining to us how Equalization works
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Here's a @ColumbiaUEnergy working paper that describes the new carbon tax bill led by @RepTedDeutch and @citizensclimate and compares it to other carbon tax proposals, so you don’t confuse your CCLs with your CLCs (thread with highlights below): . energypolicy.columbia.edu/BipartisanEner…
The Deutch bill’s carbon tax rates are much higher than other recent proposals' by the mid-2020s, which would mean larger emissions reductions, revenues, and energy market impacts:
Like the Baker/Schultz bill, the Deutch proposal would return all carbon tax revenues (net of minor admin costs) to Americans in the form of monthly rebate checks:
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Here's one small thing that's gone right for the GOP. We've now gotten a lot more polls that directly compare likely and registered voters, and on average the GOP does a bit better in the LV version. About 0.7 percentage points better, on average.
Usually, the likely v. registered voter gap favors the GOP by more than that. It was 6 points in 2010, for example. (Although that was a pretty extreme case.) Still, a few weeks ago, it seemed like the GOP might actually *lose* ground in LV polls, so this is progress of a sort.
I'd also note that it's not like the topline numbers in the polls have been getting better for the GOP. More like the opposite, frankly. It seems plausible that the GOP base is getting a bit more energized *but* independents are swinging harder to Dems.
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Here's more detail on what happens to scandal-plagued incumbents like Chris Collins. On average, scandals cost incumbents a net of 9 percentage points if they make it to the general election. And it's been more than that—13 points—in competitive districts. 53eig.ht/2MxFmVd
"If they make it to the general election" is a key phrase, because there's a survivorship bias issue in this data—really big scandals often trigger resignations or primary losses. But in this case the GOP may not have a way to get Collins off the ballot even if things gets worse.
But NY-27 is very Trumpy, and Collins had won by big margins before, so he has a lot of rope to hang himself with. I'd classify the race as "Lean Republican" (and closer to "Likely Republican" than "Tossup") but would love to see some polls and fundraising data in a few weeks.
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Here is our 2009 paper on the history of the US presidential science advisor:
Pielke, R., & Klein, R. (2009). The rise and fall of the science advisor to the president of the United States. Minerva, 47(1), 7-29.
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…
And here is our edited volume on the US presidential science advisor:
Pielke, R., & Klein, R. A. (Eds.). (2010). Presidential science advisors: Perspectives and reflections on science, policy and politics. Springer Science & Business Media.
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
And here is a paper from a project that I collaborated with Kelvin Droegemeier @kdroege (& others) back in the day on the weather research needs of the private sector, published in BAMS:
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…
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Here's a real live example of a chaos agent who infiltrated the resistance, joined candidate rooms, warned others about infiltrators, used Russian talking points to turn black people against Dems, & now supports Trump. 1/ H/T @ManInTheHoody #ThursdayThoughts #disinformation
Back in December 2017 she warned people about infiltrators. Makes her look like real resistance, right? 2/ #FakeNews #infiltrator
She tweeted about Trump being a sexual predator, & a Survivors March for survivors of sexual assault. 3/
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THE TRUE ORIGIN OF RESTAURANTS
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Centuries ago, like now, there were hostels, posadas or taverns where food was served in exchange for money, as in a thermopolium in Rome (snack-bar) where we, readers of @LRB @TwitterBooks @nytimes @NewYorker @washingtonpost, would often go
After the #fall of the #Roman #Empire in these businesses food was served in shared tables and consisted of a fixed menu, according to what was already prepared. Even the nobility, like celebrities today, would frequent when traveling.
But, when did the concept and business of restaurants truly begin?
It began with Paracelsus (1493-1541), a brilliant Swiss physician who modernized medicine with rational clinical judgment and changed the way we eat in the #Western #world.
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