Here's more detail on what happens to scandal-plagued incumbents like Chris Collins. On average, scandals cost incumbents a net of 9 percentage points if they make it to the general election. And it's been more than that—13 points—in competitive districts. 53eig.ht/2MxFmVd
"If they make it to the general election" is a key phrase, because there's a survivorship bias issue in this data—really big scandals often trigger resignations or primary losses. But in this case the GOP may not have a way to get Collins off the ballot even if things gets worse.
But NY-27 is very Trumpy, and Collins had won by big margins before, so he has a lot of rope to hang himself with. I'd classify the race as "Lean Republican" (and closer to "Likely Republican" than "Tossup") but would love to see some polls and fundraising data in a few weeks.
