Here's one small thing that's gone right for the GOP. We've now gotten a lot more polls that directly compare likely and registered voters, and on average the GOP does a bit better in the LV version. About 0.7 percentage points better, on average.
Usually, the likely v. registered voter gap favors the GOP by more than that. It was 6 points in 2010, for example. (Although that was a pretty extreme case.) Still, a few weeks ago, it seemed like the GOP might actually *lose* ground in LV polls, so this is progress of a sort.
I'd also note that it's not like the topline numbers in the polls have been getting better for the GOP. More like the opposite, frankly. It seems plausible that the GOP base is getting a bit more energized *but* independents are swinging harder to Dems.
