Well, the stock market doesn't seem too happy. Does this mean recession? No. But it does look as if Trumpophoria is fading, which makes this a good time to ask how that tax cut -- the only major legislation Trump will pass -- is going 1/
Trumpistas made a lot of the fast growth in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, which is silly -- short-term growth fluctuates a lot. But for what it's worth, "nowcasting" -- early estimates of GDP -- suggests a slowing underway. Here's @stlouisfed, which is typical 2/ 
To a rough approximation, then, whatever bump in growth we got over the past year is most of what we'll ever see. Now, annual growth including those two good quarters was 3 percent. But that should be compared with a baseline of normal growth, maybe 2 percent 3/
So let's say GDP is 1 percent higher than it would have been absent stimulus. But what were the sources of stimulus? Yes, there was a big tax cut -- around 1 percent of GDP 4/
But that wasn't the only thing going on -- there was also a real pickup in government spending; after imposing austerity under Obama despite high unemployment, Rs now spending despite low unemployment 5/
What this all looks like to me is a small payoff given the bulge in the deficit -- a multiplier well under 1 even in the short run, and likely to shrink further as higher interest rates take their toll. 6/
Oh, and what about the great investment boom the tax cut was supposed to unleash? It's looking about as real as Trump's wall. fin/
