Another thread on the revocation of A50. I wrote on Friday that revoking A50 was, in my view, the best way forward; and that it could appeal not only to remainers, but also to leavers who are against both the WA and no deal. See 1/
Many responses have been positive; most of those who are critical (from a remain perspective) have instead suggested that a 2nd ref is the more legitimate option. And it is true that the people's vote is now front and centre of the political debate. 2/
My contention has long been that the people's vote may distract, diverting attention from making a positive case for remain. Events seem to be bearing me out. blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09… 3/
The people's vote (PV) will be complex. Any PV would require an extension of A50. That needs the unilateral agreement of the EU-27. It is realistic to expect the permitted timescale to be short, and for conditions to be imposed. 4/
Far and away the biggest issue relates to the question. Since the CJEU judgment, we know that 'remain' can be an option (though there are those who argue that the choice should only be between 'leave' options). But what of the leave side? 5/
One option is the WA. That looks likely to suffer a crushing defeat in Parliament. It has been disowned by many Brexiters. The political declaration may perhaps be tweaked; but beyond that, there will be no renegotiation. 6/
So... all in all, not a good option. For full analysis of the WA, backstop, etc, see: legalresearch.blogs.bris.ac.uk/2018/11/why-th… 7/
Another option is no deal. That option is popular among only a small group of Conservative MPs. There is little doubt that it would bring significant economic damage. Trading on WTO terms is a last resort, not a panacea. 8/
So... that too is a bad option. A very bad option. 9/
We are spending a lot of time and energy trying to devise and plan for a referendum in which we think 2 of the 3 possible options are bad. We may become bogged down in a long debate about how to put these choices to the people. This seems crazy. 10/
The fault lies with the Government; which has not managed to negotiate a good Brexit (or even build support for its Brexit). If it fails to convince the House of Commons that its WA is acceptable, the House should accept the reality that Brexit has failed. 11/
That seems to me to sum up where we are. Brexit has been mismanaged. Time is almost up. The deal looks set to fail in the Commons. The response can and should be to revoke A50, and revert to the status quo ante. 12/
Those who want to pursue their own better Brexit can, if they wish, campaign for that in the months and years ahead. I may well be wrong, but I don't think that sufficient numbers in the UK will have the appetite for that. 13/13
