THREAD: Despite the fact that Christmas is now upon us, there seems to be growing dissent among the Labour tribe. Jeremy Corbyn's latest intervention seems to have really stirred things up. Here, I try to explain why; and try to point to a way forward. 1/
First, JC said nothing new. Labour policy is: vote down the deal, seek a GE, seek to renegotiate a better Brexit, if that fails, 'all options are on the table'. This is intended to appeal to leavers and remainers alike. 2/
The first stage is perhaps the most important. JC commits Labour (again) to voting down the withdrawal agreement. It is not the Brexit Labour wants. The question is what happens if the deal is rejected in Parliament in January. 3/
The EU mantra is 'no renegotiation'. The WA is their deal as much as it is Theresa May's. There is scope to tweak the political declaration, but the withdrawal agreement will not be reopened. There is simply not the time for Labour to renegotiate a better Brexit. 4/
There have been signs that some in Labour recognise this (I think Keir Starmer acknowledged it in November); but many do not. The implications are huge. 5/
If it is right that there will be no renegotiation, the only possible Brexit outcomes are no deal (and that is the default), the deal (perhaps with tweaked PD), or no Brexit. 6/
Labour strongly rejects no deal. It also rejects the Withdrawal Agreement. If there is no renegotiation, that only leaves no Brexit. Remainers were hoping that JC would see this, and point towards no Brexit. He did not do so. 7/
Why not? There are a range of arguments. It would not respect the 2016 vote to leave and would betray Labour leavers. It would cost Labour votes, esp in the North. 8/
These are arguments which cannot easily be dismissed. Labour leavers would indeed feel betrayed by a shift to remain. But... what is the alternative? Surely Labour would argue that leavers are also betrayed by the deal, and by no deal. 9/
What about other options? First, a people's vote. The problem with a PV is both that it might be seen as a betrayal, and also that it cannot deliver the Brexit outcome which Labour desires. 10/
The only possible outcomes of a PV are no Brexit, the WA (which would need to be 'revived' to be put to the public once rejected in Parliament), and (if on the ballot) no deal. A jobs first Brexit will not feature. 11/
Second, an extension of A50 to allow renegotiation? Such an extension would need the unanimous agreement of the EU-27. They have spent 2 years negotiating with the UK. They have reached a deal. They have had enough, and want to move on. 12/
While it is likely that they would allow an extension for a PV (eg between the deal and remain; both 'good' outcomes for the EU); they will not extend a A50 to allow a new UK government to start to negotiate again. 13/
But... there is a solution which might work. Instead of asking the EU for an extension, the UK could simply revoke the A50 notification, unconditionally and unequivocally ending the UK's withdrawal from the EU. This is, I think, the best stance for Labour to take. 14/
Obviously it will appeal to remainers. But... it should, on reflection, appeal to Labour leavers too. It expresses the reality that this Brexit process has been horribly mismanaged, and has led only to 'bad' outcomes which Parliament is not prepared to endorse. 15/
It would mean that the UK remains a member of the EU; so no rule-taker transition, and no £39 billion divorce bill. 16/
But... it does not close off the possibility of Brexit. The UK, after a pause (and in all probability a GE), can choose to embark on Brexit again. If Labour is committed to a jobs first Brexit, it enables it to pursue just that. 17/
Legally, revocation cannot be forever. A sovereign state has the ability to decide whether it wants to stay in the EU, or to leave. Parties (like, perhaps Labour) wanting to make the case for leaving the EU are and will be free to do so. 18/
In essence, this is a way for Labour to defer a final decision on Brexit; and to enable a serious debate to be had, within the Party and the country, about what the best route forward is. 19/
I would argue that such a debate is long overdue; but the fact is that it hasn't happened yet. Hard choices have yet to be confronted. That, I think, explains the difficulty which Labour has in coming to a coherent position. 20/
Anyway... enough for now. Merry Christmas all. The argument for revocation is made more fully here: blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12… 21/21
