The Treaty of Versailles is 100 years old this year. Now is a good time to consider where Europe has been and where it is headed. @AnandMenon1 and I wrote a piece for @IAJournal_CH as a way of looking back and projecting forward (doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiy…). 1/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH The argument builds on Anand’s excellent 2008 ‘State of the Union’ (amazon.co.uk/Europe-State-U…) and a clutch of articles we have written over the past 10-15 years. It also builds on, inter alia, work co-authored w/ @rdanielkelemen and @sophielmeunier 2/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier The basic point is that the European project that existed during the Cold War changed significantly when the Cold War ended. 3/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier That does not mean European integration was a mistake. On the contrary, the alternatives were significantly worse – particularly when you consider the historical context in which the European project was initiated. 4/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier This change in the pattern of European integration does mean, however, that we should expect the European Union to evolve in ways that its founders had not anticipated. 5/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier The Europe that our children and their children will inherit will not be wrapped in the same myths about economic progress or inevitability (doi.org/10.1111/j.1468…). 6/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier Current Europeans struggle at times to trust in their national elites and that lack of trust is sapping support from the wider European project – as argued eloquently by the late Peter Mair (doi.org/10.1111/j.1477…) in @govandopp. 7/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp At least part of the problem is that the European Union has a halting and incremental approach to problem solving – that is understandable and yet still disappointing for observers who want to see more decisiveness (doi.org/10.1177/001041…). 8/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp We also find evidence that the way Europe is perceived by the public is not the same as how it is perceived by elites – and that difference in perceptions matters (doi.org/10.1111/j.1468…). 9/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp The result is a breakdown in European solidarity that is very different from the crises that the project has experienced in the past (doi.org/10.1111/j.1468…). 10/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp As national politicians struggle to respond, they find themselves retreating from commitments to institutionalized burden-sharing toward a less ambitious model for national responsibility (chathamhouse.org/publications/t…). 11/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp That retreat is not inevitable, but it is noteworthy. You can see the extreme form in Great Britain’s decision to exit from the European Union (doi.org/10.1080/003963…). 12/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp You can also see the retreat to national responsibility in the tense relations that have developed between the European institutions and the Italian government (doi.org/10.1080/003963…). 13/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp And it is evident in the moralizing tone that has been wrapped around macroeconomic governance debates (funcas.es/publicaciones/…). 14/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp This retreat from European solidarity to national responsibility explains in part why so many scholars are now looking to understand how European disintegration might take place (doi.org/10.1080/135017…). 15/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp Personally, I hope Europe’s political leadership finds a way to reverse this new pattern of disaffection. Because the problem lies at the national level, however, Europe’s national politicians will have to fix it (doi.org/10.1080/003963…). 16/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp I am not sure if this is the vision of Europe that @CasMudde disagrees with in his very generous reference to my work (). If it is, I hope he has something more optimistic. 17/18
@anandMenon1 @IAJournal_CH @rdanielkelemen @SophieLMeunier @govandopp @CasMudde As I said about the € - but this time with greater emphasis - the European project was is a great achievement. In our article, we compare the EU to Camelot. Let’s hope that is inaccurate. The coming year will be an important one in Europe’s development. 18/18
