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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
It’s here:
“As you know, we are not in a position to agree to anything that changes or is inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement...”
Repeats December Council conclusions reassured that those conclusions have “legal value”
Commission Repeats that Agreement is of unprecedented depth and breadth and that it will start prep on future as soon as Commons agreed Withdrawal deal
Backstop “only intended to apply temporarily” is the quote in the reassurance letter... and “as short as possible.

But no expiry date, obviously. instead they’ll meet every six months to “take stock”...

Doesn’t have the appearance of a game changer.
Ie - can’t see how this letter changes the published Attorney General legal advice.
And PMs letter to them here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
- appendix at end of PMs letter asking for specific backstop reassurances - and the reply from EU:
The phrase “best endeavours” is nothing new too - it’s been in the Withdrawal Agreement for two months - Article 184
so what happens if eg this Government accuses EU of foot dragging in the backstop - who judges whether “best endeavours” is being complied with? Well during the transition period, according to the UK Gov legal document - it will be the European Court of Justice
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
And on notion of UK & Ireland bilateral treaty - I asked Varadkar at last months EU summit about precisely this point - response UK leaving EU, so therefore negotiation with EU alone. Basically “not this again”...not sure why Ireland would break with EU27
Bilateral treaty not in itself a bad idea - and Dublin’s backstop conundrum is No Deal over backstop precipitates immediately the problem it is trying to avoid in 3/4 years time.

It is just difficult to see why Dublin would give up leverage of EU27/Commission on any of this.
Sky Sources: “Not a hope” of a bilateral treaty.

Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Raab tells Sophy “we can’t let the EU bully us or call the shots” and so if no changes to deal should leave with no deal on WTO terms; EU will demand a negotiation “reasonably swiftly” and as a third country we would have more negotiation leverage

#Ridge
Few of the optimistic claims “we hold all the cards/ German carmakers/ easy trade deals/ trade deals ready to go/ need us more than we need them” about how EU would respond to Brexit have been borne out by the experience of past 2 years - indeed if true bullying wd be impossible
Dominic Raab on Marr suggests that in conversations as Brexit Sec with @simoncoveney “there was an opening” to get a backstop exit mechanism “got ruled out by less moderate Leo Varadkar”.

This is what Coveney told me on cam while Raab still Brexit Sec:
news.sky.com/story/ireland-…
Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Yougov updated its EU tracker poll...

Pretty consistent Brexit Right lead 3-4 points (from 2016 till April 2017
Level pegging after GE2017
Brexit Wrong consistent small lead since Sep 2017
Brexit Wrong close to double digit lead vs Brexit Right, over past month (at it w/o DK)
...or alternatively on its tracker poll, it’s now exactly a year since Yougov found a majority (+1) who thought Brexit was Right versus wrong... the last three reading for that are , -9, -7, -11 (ie in favour of Brexit was wrong)

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…
The real horror story for the Government here is the polling over time for its handling of Brexit:

Started off pretty bad in autumn 2016 -30
Gets less bad after Lancaster House -15
Goes Positive after Article 50
Collapses after GE2017 -30
Total freefall -50/ -70 since July
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Here's a thread on the Tusk Juncker letter:
1/ It largely re-confirms and re-emphasises what is in the WA and the Political Declaration. Straight up it says: "we are not in a position to agree to anything that changes or is inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement"
2/ Most clarifications that might be of comfort to Theresa May relate back to the December summit - meaning they re-emphasise what's already there. This includes the Council's "firm commitment to work speedily on a subsequent
agreement that establishes by 31 December 2020...
...alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not need to be triggered." It also repeats that the backstop "would only apply temporarily, unless and until it is superseded by a subsequent agreement that ensures that a hard border is avoided."
Read 18 tweets
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James Crisp
@JamesCrisp6
Ok here is a steaming hot take on the exchange of letters offering assurances over the Irish border backstop. First impressions are that EU trying to help with talk of discuss “alternative arrangements “ ie tech solutions to Irish border, once dismissed as ‘magical thinking’
1/
In May’s letter to Tusk and Juncker, she reminds them she suggested a legal commitment to have future relationship talks end by 2021 at the latest.

Tusk and Juncker don’t mention this in their response. It aint going to happen, which we knew already.

2/
May asks for exploratory trade talks to start as soon as Withdrawal agreement is signed. She asks for "particular urgency' for tech solutions to border, wants EU to stress legal link between political declaration & WA
3/
Read 11 tweets
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the3million
@the3million
1/ We are asking you @DExEUgov & @WalkerWorcester why are you misleading the electorate?
It is not a #citizensrights guarantee for the 3.6m EU citizens in the UK but barely a promise of lesser rights
2/ As @Stuart_McDonald pointed out in the House of Commons in December:
1) it is not a #citizensrights guarantee - but a promise. "Here today, gone tomorrow"
2) the Govt promise on #citizensrights for EU citizens does not match what was agreed in the Withdrawal Agreement. Why?
3/ and your promise is of no help to the 1.2m @BritishInEurope as @Stuart_McDonald rightly also points out
Read 5 tweets
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Steve Peers
@StevePeers
As I have mentioned before, recently the EU Council approved the UK negotiating on Brexit issues with EFTA States. The details of this negotiation have now been released to the public. Here they are. A few comments. 1/x
2/ The UK/EFTA negotiations are taking place on the assumption that the withdrawal agreement is agreed and comes into force, and seek to match up the UK's relations with EFTA States with UK/EU relations during the transition period set out in the withdrawal agreement.
3/ The scope of the UK/EFTA State talks is limited to a) one aspect of citizens' rights - issuing residence documents during the transition period; and b) "other separation issues", which are not specified. There's no issue at this point of negotiating to join EFTA, etc.
Read 6 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
They're now looking at November for a withdrawal agreement, and getting it agreed at December's euco.
So parliament is not going to see a withdrawal agreement this side of Christmas at least.
That's fun because if there's no withdrawal agreement in December - which there won't be - there'll be no time left for a general election before we get kicked out of Europe in March.
Which means there will then be a general election next summer, right when the economy is going down the drain. And that's when Corbyn steps in, nationalises everything, abolishes the monarchy and breaks up the country.
Read 12 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
I am so desperately tired of the lies and the obsfucation, the purposeful and active avoidance of debate.
This week specific concerns were raised on meaningful vote, patriotic concerns. They were met with 'but the will of the people', like some clown mantra.
It's intended to scare MPs off from questioning, rather than debate them.
Read 8 tweets

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