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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Raab tells Sophy “we can’t let the EU bully us or call the shots” and so if no changes to deal should leave with no deal on WTO terms; EU will demand a negotiation “reasonably swiftly” and as a third country we would have more negotiation leverage

#Ridge
Few of the optimistic claims “we hold all the cards/ German carmakers/ easy trade deals/ trade deals ready to go/ need us more than we need them” about how EU would respond to Brexit have been borne out by the experience of past 2 years - indeed if true bullying wd be impossible
Dominic Raab on Marr suggests that in conversations as Brexit Sec with @simoncoveney “there was an opening” to get a backstop exit mechanism “got ruled out by less moderate Leo Varadkar”.

This is what Coveney told me on cam while Raab still Brexit Sec:
news.sky.com/story/ireland-…
Now listening to Villiers...

Seems coordinated newish ERG position to say that No Deal WTO exit would only be temporary as EU would be forced back to negotiating table.
ERG vice chair Mark Francois also told Sky News that No Deal would only mean a short period on WTO terms - this is a notable change in position...

No longer WTO/No Deal is fine/great
Now - we’ll be in it for a short period before the EU is forced back to negotiating table
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
“V difficult to support it without the actual text being opened up that’s right...”: Rees Mogg response to idea of supporting a change to backstop short of a change to legal text, and one confined to political decalaration? “No that wouldn’t be any good at all...no no nonstarter”
..was after leaving his Cabinet Office meeting just before lunch.. sounded lukewarm on Brady:“The Graham Brady amendment is being considered seriously by serious people and that is a serious matter..We’ll have to see what the speaker calls what it achieves and where it leads us”
Another former Cabinet Minister Brexiter told me that Brady amendment was “too vague” and would wait to see what PM said...
Read 5 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Government Brexit animation joyfully explaining via tickboxes that businesses “like yours” are preparing for No Deal in 9 weeks time:

✅ Customs Declarations
✅ Safety & security declarations
✅ Documents at the border
✅ Product licenses
✅ Temporary import processes
“To keep your supply chain running smoothly.. talk to your suppliers and customers”...

For reference - Irish Government was funding business supply chain changes with loans just under a year ago.
Actually interesting that it doesn’t mention that these tickboxes only apply to a No Deal situation.... but they only apply in a No Deal situation. They won’t be required if there’s a deal or if A50 extended.
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Airbus chief exec attacks Brexit “disgrace” - no Deal will divert investment and make no mistake other countries want to build wings for aircraft. “Airbus not dependent on UK”...

It did warn about this months ago.
In Whitehall, expecting cascade of these types of announcements hearing now of active moves in EU capitals to cultivate various multinationals to activate No Deal relocation plans for HQs/ manufacturing from UK for those that need to maintain EU single market privileges
“Please don’t listen to Brexiters madness ...they’re wrong”.
“UK aerospace at precipice, No Deal Brexit & we at Airbus will have to make potentially v harmful decisions for UK”
“Ironic that in mid 1990s (ie under Tory Govt) UK architects of European aerospace integration”. Punchy
Read 4 tweets

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#Ode2Joy Takeaway Ferries
@lunaperla
@JamesDelingpole Two issues with your piece.
N°1: you assert, "Britain traded perfectly well for the large chunk of history it has spent outside the EU." This is a spurious argument. The EU didn't exist then. We are going from the best possible trade terms with the EU (SM+CU) to worst (#WTO).
/1.
@JamesDelingpole This will not just impact our trade with EU27 + EEA/EFTA4, but also with those countries with trade with via EU FTAs and those countries we trade with on WTO+++ terms, the '+++' furnished by the EU's 759 facilities that improve on #WTO terms.
/2.
@JamesDelingpole Only 16% of UK's trade is on WTO terms alone.

You're proposing that we dramatically downgrade 100% of our trade to WTO terms alone, at the stroke of a pen. This is insanity. It has taken decades to reach to position we're in today. No wonder Mogg says 50yrs to recover!
/3.
Read 8 tweets
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Brexitshambles
@brexit_sham
This is VERY IMPORTANT - Watch as @GeraintDaviesMP, a former trade rapporteur for the Council of Europe to the WTO, explains to @theresa_may that what people who voted Leave are being told over WTO terms is yet another pack of LIES from the people who LIED to them over BREXIT.
@GeraintDaviesMP has warned about US trade deals being promoted by Conservative MPs in the pocket of Atlas Network organisations such as the IEA and The Heritage Foundation whose goal is a low-tax, small state, deregulated economy off the shores of Europe.
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
'No deal' lets them deliver the US trade deal they've wanted all along.....straight after 29th March 2019.
Read 5 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Unicorn Shredder: Hard Brexit Truths
- The major economic harm Brexit is already inflicting on the UK
- Reality of "no deal" & WTO terms
- EU "punishment" narrative
- Endangered industries: automotive & haulage
+ much, much more...

(Each tweet is a self-contained thread.)
Jobs are already going, and investment is drying up. Firms are redomiciling assets to the EU27. Ireland plans to bypass the UK entirely and send goods trade directly to the EU. Meanwhile, the UK Government flushes away £billions on no-deal preparations.
The full, horrifying reality of a "no deal" scenario, and what trading on WTO terms really means. The 750+ treaties and trade deals we will be giving up on Brexit Day. Debunking the absurd EU "punishment" narrative.
Read 28 tweets
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Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
So it seems #Idlib ops (divided into 3 stages) has been moved for a further date, giving me enough time to close the Iraqi news and return to #Syria, soon.
#Turkey failed to integrate al-Nusra, aka Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, within rebels army (it might succeed at a certain point); failed to isolate al-Qaeda (Hurras el-Deen) & foreign fighters, incl Chinese Uyghur jihadists. So Erdogan turned against the #EU

#Russia refused any negotiation over Jihadists in #Idlib and insisted on Turkey to fulfil its promises or stand down.

Putin is expected to give Erdogan more time by clearing rural Lattakia, rural Hama, rural Aleppo and leave the city of Idlib last.

Read 4 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. This is going to sound a bit preachy but I'm going to roll with it anyway. The Tory Brexiters have pulled a fast one. They have shifted to goalposts and now propagandists are spinning the narrative that any deal is a betrayal of #Brexit. These people are professional liars.
2. If we had a functioning media the people who say we can rely on WTO rules as a basis for our post-Brexit trade relations would be hauled over the coals by all of the major newspapers because it is not a matter of mere opinion. It is an outright demonstrable lie.
3. But rather than outing liars as indeed our media should, many vessels are actually complicit in the lie. Particularly BrexitCentral, City AM, The Telegraph, the Express and The Spectator. They will give houseroom to liars without flinching. This is what they do now.
Read 17 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Sheffield #remain #BuildTheDamnWallNow #Macron #Preston #free #RemainerNow #Etonian #NoDealBrexit #Bootle #NaturalGas #Deal #product #2020Election #WTOBrexit #tobacco #EU27 #MAGA2020 #VoteBlueNoMatterWho #ECJ #Barking #PeoplesVote #DRC #brexitreality #NTBs
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