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Labour have tabled a motion of no-confidence in the Government.
I've been looking at these for @instituteforgov since it last looked like this might happen. Here's a short thread with five quick insights from historical no-confidence motions:
I've been looking at these for @instituteforgov since it last looked like this might happen. Here's a short thread with five quick insights from historical no-confidence motions:
1) They are rare, and tend to be unsuccessful. Of 26 motions of no confidence voted on in the Commons since 1945, just one has passed.
The last confidence motion we had was in November 1994, and the last time the opposition tabled a motion of no confidence was in March 1991.
The last confidence motion we had was in November 1994, and the last time the opposition tabled a motion of no confidence was in March 1991.
2) When they are successful, it's really not good news for the government. The last (and only) time a government lost a confidence motion and then won a subsequent general election was in 1784.
3) MPs don't tend to vote against their own Government in no-confidence motions. Governments lose no-confidence motions because their Parliamentary majority is weak or non-existent to start with.
15/24 successful no-confidence motions were tabled against minority governments.
15/24 successful no-confidence motions were tabled against minority governments.
Take the three successful motions of no confidence since 1900: Callaghan (1979), MacDonald (1924) and Baldwin (1924).
Each administration kept the confidence of its party, but lost the support of the House (though remarkably MacDonald won over 12 Liberals and 2 Conservatives).
Each administration kept the confidence of its party, but lost the support of the House (though remarkably MacDonald won over 12 Liberals and 2 Conservatives).
4) You have to wait until the Parliamentary arithmetic is right (as Corbyn says he has done).
During the winter of 1978-9, Thatcher was under extraordinary pressure to no-confidence Callaghan's Government, but only tabled a motion in March 1979 after the SNP had already done so.
During the winter of 1978-9, Thatcher was under extraordinary pressure to no-confidence Callaghan's Government, but only tabled a motion in March 1979 after the SNP had already done so.
She was right to exercise caution - Callaghan lost by a single vote (311-310). Had Frank Maguire not abstained or Alfred Broughton not been ill, the Government would have survived.
Thatcher (image 1) and Labour's Roy Hattersley (image 2) described the tension following the vote:
Thatcher (image 1) and Labour's Roy Hattersley (image 2) described the tension following the vote:
5) They tend to pan out how we expect them to, and so the Government will probably survive this one.
According to Phillip Norton, the motion of no confidence against Callaghan was the only one in the twentieth century where the outcome was unclear until it was announced.
According to Phillip Norton, the motion of no confidence against Callaghan was the only one in the twentieth century where the outcome was unclear until it was announced.
