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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Amending the Good Friday Agreement will never fix backstop issue  - my latest on ⁦@Theresa_may⁩ Plan B.

Why won’t it fly? 1/ telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
Well, for starters you need Agreement of all NI parties, UK and IE govts to amend Good Friday Agreement

All-party talks anyone,
after the trust deficit that’s grown up since Brexit? Seriously? /2
Then we’re expecting the EU to allow Irish and U.K. govts to bilateralise the border (an EU external border) where EU has trade competence? Seriously?

Legally and politically imbecilic. /3
There was a car bomb in Londonderry last night, in case they missed that in No10. The GFA is corroding as NI politics polarises. #brexit is an accelerant to that trend. /4
EU source describe the plan to me as “insane” - the politest word they could come up with.

If you were cynical, you’d say she can’t be serious.

She’s just playing to the base.

Playing for time.

No one should be cheered by this nonense. /ENDS
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
@MrHarryCole Well. It looks like chicken time...get EU to get IE to tweak backstop, on peril of a no-deal, and the very hard border both sides trying to avoid.

But some big probs with this strategy, or rather accessing the space where the tweak-for-a-deal gets done. 1/
@MrHarryCole 1. The EU don’t buy a U.K. govt wd ever go for a no deal. They just can’t see a rational govt inflicting that level of self-harm. When you’d still need to negotiate a deal - from your knees, with no legal roof (transition) and Irish/Spanish vetos in play /2
@MrHarryCole 2. The ERG are so far out of the deal zone (Brady/Murrison that wants to rip up irish protocol and replace with one line of “we commit to no hard border”. Not sure that offer even opens a discussion in Brussels. /3
Read 11 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Lots of shrapnel around on the Irish border and what happens in a 'no deal'.

Brexiteers now reckon they've caught out Commission, exposed it as a "hoax" since Barnier says checks can be down without hard border.

What's going on? Thread after chats. /1
This all stems from a Barnier remark saying that EU will have "to find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border.”

Cue Nigel... /2
Which, to cut a long story short, followed Irish outrage over previous Commission statements saying the a 'no deal' would bring back a hard border, both from Commission spox, but also Barnier himself.

This quote: /3
Read 19 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @AndrewDuffEU has had a crack at re-writing the #Brexit political declaration.

It's less baggy than the actual PD, which was an empty vessel.

The point is to tap the nexus between more clarity in PD opening door to some flex on WA.

Some highlights 1/thread
@AndrewDuffEU The big one is a Customs Union, or rather much clearler signalling that that is where we are heading.

Tory Buccaneers will hate this, obviously, but in the absence of Irish border unicorns we're heading there anyway. Which is why they hate the deal of course. /2
@AndrewDuffEU Then Free Movement. Softer here, hinting heavily that the new immigration regime won't impact so hard on existing EU-UK exchanges.

Its the kind of language that would reassure the EU that there new neighbours are good citizens, not arsonists who would burn their house down./3
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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James Crisp
@JamesCrisp6
UK credit rating at risk if it fails to pay Brexit bill. UK gov source confirms threat is a bluff. But Brussels thinks it is all for the domestic audience. A dangerous game w/ repurcussions for Global Britain & trade
Latest from me @Annaisaac & a thread telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/…
Moody's told Anna that welching on the bill would shred UK credibility and that damage is already being done to investment and trade prospects. This was after Dominic Raab's op-ed 2/
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
A senior UK gov source told me the threat was part of a game of chicken to convince the EU we were serious about no deal.
“Not paying a penny is not realistic,” the source said, “All the stuff you are hearing is about frightening the Commission,” 3/ “
Read 12 tweets
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
Top #Brexit official @DavidDavisMP resigns. bbc.com/news/uk-politi…
Parliamentary Undersecretary for #Brexit @SteveBakerHW has also resigned, according to #UK media reports.
Government of @theresa_may thrown into "deep crisis," according to @Telegraph. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 5 tweets
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Séamus Nevin
@SNevin1
THREAD: @Jacob_Rees_Mogg has become the latest Brexiteer to belittle concerns about the implications of Brexit for security in Northern Ireland telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
To help conversions on this topic be better informed, I thought I should write a timeline of terrorism (perpetrated by both sides) in NI. For brevity sake, I will only cover the period SINCE the Brexit referendum (23 June 2016). Brace yourselves. This will be a long one:
June 2016: The Police Service of Norethern Ireland (PSNI) believe that pipe bombs found in Derry/Londonderry on 17 June could be linked to "violent dissident republican terrorism" bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
Read 90 tweets

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