Thread by @pmdfoster

Lots of shrapnel around on the Irish border and what happens in a 'no deal'.

Brexiteers now reckon they've caught out Commission, exposed it as a "hoax" since Barnier says checks can be down without hard border.

What's going on? Thread after chats. /1

This all stems from a Barnier remark saying that EU will have "to find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border.”

Cue Nigel... /2

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1088437410650865664

Which, to cut a long story short, followed Irish outrage over previous Commission statements saying the a 'no deal' would bring back a hard border, both from Commission spox, but also Barnier himself.

This quote: /3

Per my understanding - from multiple sources - this was born with mounting Commission frustration about Irish refusal to engage on reality of what 'no deal' means for the border.

Both in 'no deal' planning notices, but also politically. /4

This, obviously, because it's too politically sensitive (bit like Cameron ordering UK civil service not to prep for losing EU Referendum)...it becomes self-fulfilling prophecy.

And @simoncoveney hot mic episode makes that clear. They can't be the part to restore border. /5

@simoncoveney But where lies the truth? Talk to UK side, talk to EU side, talk to NI biz....and they all know (as @simoncoveney conceded there will be a border.

Talk by @campaignforleo that UK must voluntarily implement backstop in 'no deal' is also a unicorn. /6

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1088410626374942720?s=20

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo The reality of what @MichelBarnier is that the border inspection posts (BIPS) can be set back form the border a bit - but it's still the same requirement to defend EU single market, Brexiteers should not doubt that. /7

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier It is true that those checks could be 'de-dramatized' but let's not forget why @theresa_may demanded an 'all-UK' solution to avoid border in Irish sea, splitting the Union, angering the Scots etc. /8

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may Crashing out on ‘third country’ terms, brings down the legal guillotine.

Even the fact that we start from regulatory parity doesn’t mean, as one UK official puts it, “we still get treated like North Korea”. /9

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may To be fair to the EI govt, the British aren't being much more forthcoming in confronting reality of what 'no deal' means for border.... /10

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may Understand the HMRC cancelled a meeting of its ‘Border Delivery Group’ in Northern Ireland last Friday (the clue is in the name) because it still doesn’t have cogent political advice from Cabinet about what would happen. /11

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may But the Commission first flying a kite - then backtracking with bizarre non-response to my colleague @JamesCrisp6 yesterday has muddied the waters now.

More and more ERG'ers will be convinced that if they hang tough the EU will fold and the border 'hoax' will be exposed. /12

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @JamesCrisp6 Of course, the basic dilemma remains:

The backstop is there to prevent a return to a hard border.

If it causes a 'no deal', it will have been completely self-defeating. /13

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @JamesCrisp6 That presumably is why we are seeing signs of pressure on the Irish.

Understand Merkel repeatedly asked Varadkar what he'd do in event of 'no deal' and he repeatedly declined to answer. /14

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @JamesCrisp6 Does this mean the EU are prepared to 'throw Varadkar under the bus'?

I really don't think so. And certainly not if the UK government and parliament cannot demonstrate that an tweak to the Backstop secures a deal. /15

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @JamesCrisp6 This is one obvious problem from May's massive defeat.

The EU *might* demand an act of statesmanship from @campaignforleo if it moved the ball over the line. (Just speculating) BUT not, as one EU dip says "just so May can lose a bit less badly". /16

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @JamesCrisp6 We have seen flirtatious EU talk about willingness to entertain "alternative arrangements" - but of course, those arrangements still need to deliver on the basic commitment to no return to a hard border. (Which, lest we forget, the UK is jointly invested in) /17

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @JamesCrisp6 The really crazy thing is that the Commission's botched gambit has reduced the likelihood of that happening and entrenched fallacies about the border on this side of the channel.

Well done everyone!

18/ENDS

@simoncoveney @campaignforleo @MichelBarnier @theresa_may @JamesCrisp6 BTW, my boss just came over to remind me to say that all of that was available to subscribers of the spiffing @Telegraph Brexit Bullet with me @JamesCrisp6 @JamesERothwell @asabenn

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