Thread by @pmdfoster

@MrHarryCole Well. It looks like chicken time...get EU to get IE to tweak backstop, on peril of a no-deal, and the very hard border both sides trying to avoid.

But some big probs with this strategy, or rather accessing the space where the tweak-for-a-deal gets done. 1/

@MrHarryCole 1. The EU don’t buy a U.K. govt wd ever go for a no deal. They just can’t see a rational govt inflicting that level of self-harm. When you’d still need to negotiate a deal - from your knees, with no legal roof (transition) and Irish/Spanish vetos in play /2

@MrHarryCole 2. The ERG are so far out of the deal zone (Brady/Murrison that wants to rip up irish protocol and replace with one line of “we commit to no hard border”. Not sure that offer even opens a discussion in Brussels. /3

@MrHarryCole 2a. Any five-to-midnight fix needs (as Junker says) to be linked to more clarity on future. So if we did go for CU, then less pressure on border fix and maybe - maybe - more flex on backstop. /4

@MrHarryCole 3. Sequencing. EU could flex at death, but only if certain it gets deal over line. But May is never gonna get 100% of what ERG/DUP amendments mandate her to get. So how can EU give her, say 50% of the ‘ask’ and be sure it carries the day. (Given she lost by 230) last time /5

@MrHarryCole As EU dips say “we’re not gonna just help her lose a bit less badly” - so leave ERG to come back for more.

So...rather than play chicken EU may just play for time.

Either if Cooper/Boles is passed, or just let May flounder and Parliament step in. /6

@MrHarryCole At that point we get either U.K. cave-in (as last two years suggests) or GE and long extension of A50

If we get to end of this year and no closer to deal, then maybe EU call changes and the U.K. goes off the cliff - if it really wants to. /7

@MrHarryCole But even then, you gotta think there are still enough grown ups in the room to avoid a WTO face-plant and U.K. govt deciding to take a huge step towards undermining political stability in NI.

If not, then the U.K. will have gone the full Trump... /8

@MrHarryCole And if people think that’s the way to being taken serious as an investment destination and trade partner they’re nuts. Deluded.

It’s why this game of chicken govt now seems set on is harder to play than it looks.../10

@MrHarryCole And a long winded way of saying if Irish have over-reached themselves, they still hold more cards than we do if the U.K. plan is now to drive this right to the wire. /11

@MrHarryCole Fwiw I did vote Remain, but have never supported stopping Brexit, or even NorwayPlus. The vote needs honouring. But a ‘no deal’ would be the worst possible advert for leaving the EU.

As a journo I just try find shit out. That’s all. Appreciate you saying that. /11